Tusker v Shabana prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Tusker are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tusker 37%, draw 32%, Shabana 31%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Tusker v ShabanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Tusker win37%

Draw32%

Shabana win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tusker

Shabana

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tusker winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · postponed, not graded

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Tusker a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tusker v Shabana~~1.05 – 0.94

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tusker win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tusker win	37%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Shabana win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Tusker or draw	69%	–	–
Tusker clean sheet	40%	–	–
Shabana clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.4%

0123450 14.4 12.4 6.0 1 13.9 13.7 6.2 2 7.6 7.0 3.3 3 2.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tusker down, Shabana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tusker at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shabana away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Tusker, 0.94 for Shabana. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SHA 1–0 TUS · TUS 1–1 SHA · TUS 1–1 SHA · SHA 2–1 TUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

TUSKER

W2–0

SHABANA

W1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0