Shabana v Mara Sugar prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Shabana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shabana 40%, draw 31%, Mara Sugar 29%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Shabana v Mara SugarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Shabana win40%

Draw31%

Mara Sugar win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shabana

Mara Sugar

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 19 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mara Sugar	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shabana winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · postponed, not graded

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Shabana a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shabana v Mara Sugar~~1.13 – 0.92

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shabana win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shabana win	40%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Mara Sugar win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Shabana or draw	71%	–	–
Shabana clean sheet	40%	–	–
Mara Sugar clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 13.7 11.3 5.4 1 14.1 13.6 6.0 2 8.2 7.4 3.4 3 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shabana down, Mara Sugar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 FKF Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shabana at home: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mara Sugar away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Shabana, 0.92 for Mara Sugar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAR 1–0 SHA · SHA 0–0 MAR · SHA 0–1 MAR · MAR 1–0 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

SHABANA

WD1–0 · 0–0

MARA SUGAR

DW2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	2	+3	6
2	Mara Sugar	2	+1	4
3	KCB	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
7	Tusker	1	+2	3
8	3K	2	0	2
9	Nairobi United	2	0	2
10	Bandari	2	0	2
11	Kenya Police	1	0	1
12	Migori Youth	1	0	1
13	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
14	Mathare United	2	−1	1
15	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
16	Ulinzi Stars	2	−2	1
17	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0
18	Posta Rangers FC	2	−5	0