Posta Rangers FC v GOR Mahia prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

GOR Mahia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Posta Rangers FC 17%, draw 25%, GOR Mahia 58%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Posta Rangers FC v GOR MahiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Posta Rangers FC win17%

Draw25%

GOR Mahia win58%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Posta Rangers FC

GOR Mahia

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gor mahia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · postponed, not graded

58% The market–

Us58%

We make GOR Mahia a 58% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Posta Rangers FC v GOR Mahia~~0.75 – 1.64

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~18 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · GOR Mahia win

Published at 56%, 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Posta Rangers FC win	17%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
GOR Mahia win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Posta Rangers FC or draw	42%	–	–
Posta Rangers FC clean sheet	20%	–	–
GOR Mahia clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%

0123450 9.9 14.5 12.1 6.7 2.9 1 6.6 11.5 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 2.7 4.2 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Posta Rangers FC down, GOR Mahia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 FKF Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Posta Rangers FC at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). GOR Mahia away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.75 goals for Posta Rangers FC, 1.64 for GOR Mahia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POS 1–1 GOR · GOR 3–0 POS · GOR 2–1 POS · POS 0–3 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

POSTA RANGERS FC

LL0–1 · 1–5

GOR MAHIA

WW4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	2	+3	6
2	Mara Sugar	2	+1	4
3	KCB	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
7	Tusker	1	+2	3
8	3K	2	0	2
9	Nairobi United	2	0	2
10	Bandari	2	0	2
11	Kenya Police	1	0	1
12	Migori Youth	1	0	1
13	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
14	Mathare United	2	−1	1
15	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
16	Ulinzi Stars	2	−2	1
17	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0
18	Posta Rangers FC	2	−5	0