Police v Posta Rangers FC prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Police are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Police 51%, draw 30%, Posta Rangers FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Police v Posta Rangers FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Police win51%

Draw30%

Posta Rangers FC win19%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police

Posta Rangers FC

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Police	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make Police a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Police v Posta Rangers FC~~1.28 – 0.66

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~9 v 15

~~The market · Police win~~53% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Police win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police win	51%	53%	−2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Posta Rangers FC win	19%	18%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Both teams to score	35%	41%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	13%	20%	−7
Police or draw	81%	82%	−1
Police clean sheet	52%	–	–
Posta Rangers FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%

0123450 15.2 9.2 3.2 1 18.0 12.3 3.9 2 11.7 7.5 2.5 3 5.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police down, Posta Rangers FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Police at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Posta Rangers FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Police, 0.66 for Posta Rangers FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POS 2–0 POL · POL 0–0 POS · POS 0–1 POL · POL 3–2 POS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

POLICE

D1–1

POSTA RANGERS FC

L0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0