Nairobi United v Tusker prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Nairobi United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nairobi United 38%, draw 31%, Tusker 32%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Nairobi United v TuskerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Nairobi United win38%

Draw31%

Tusker win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nairobi United

Tusker

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Nairobi United	2	0	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nairobi united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Nairobi United a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nairobi United v Tusker~~1.11 – 1.00

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W0 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nairobi United win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nairobi United win	38%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Tusker win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Nairobi United or draw	68%	–	–
Nairobi United clean sheet	37%	–	–
Tusker clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 13.0 11.7 6.0 2.1 1 13.0 13.7 6.5 2.2 2 7.5 7.3 3.6 3 2.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nairobi United down, Tusker across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 FKF Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nairobi United at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tusker away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Nairobi United, 1.00 for Tusker. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NAI 1–0 TUS · TUS 0–1 NAI · NAI 1–1 TUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

NAIROBI UNITED

DD2–2 · 0–0

TUSKER

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	2	+3	6
2	Mara Sugar	2	+1	4
3	KCB	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
7	Tusker	1	+2	3
8	3K	2	0	2
9	Nairobi United	2	0	2
10	Bandari	2	0	2
11	Kenya Police	1	0	1
12	Migori Youth	1	0	1
13	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
14	Mathare United	2	−1	1
15	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
16	Ulinzi Stars	2	−2	1
17	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0
18	Posta Rangers FC	2	−5	0