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Nairobi United v Mara Sugar
Nairobi UnitedMara SugarFKF Premier League · FRI 16 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassNairobi United are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nairobi United 43%, draw 29%, Mara Sugar 28%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded
Nairobi United win43%Mara Sugar win28%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 7
Match timeline
All events
Nairobi UnitedMINMara SugarEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League
Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Nairobi United a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United win | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Mara Sugar win | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Nairobi United or draw | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Nairobi United clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Mara Sugar clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct
NAIROBI UNITED
MARA SUGAR
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Tusker | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Homeboyz | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Shabana | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 |  KCB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 |  3K | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Police | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Migori Youth | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 |  AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 |  Bandari | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 |  APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 |  Posta Rangers FC | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Mombasa Elite | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Murang'a SEAL | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Ulinzi Stars | 1 | −2 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.