Nairobi United v APS Bomet prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nairobi UnitedDrawAPS Bomet

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nairobi United 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nairobi United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nairobi United 40%, draw 30%, APS Bomet 30%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Nairobi United v APS BometBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 03:41 · locked at kick-off

Nairobi United win40%

Draw30%

APS Bomet win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nairobi United

APS Bomet

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nairobi united winFirst published 21 Oct 03:41 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Nairobi United a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nairobi United v APS Bomet~~1.20 – 0.99

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 1~~11 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nairobi United win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
APS Bomet win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Nairobi United or draw	70%	–	–
Nairobi United clean sheet	37%	–	–
APS Bomet clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.0 10.7 5.5 1 12.9 13.5 6.5 2.2 2 8.0 7.7 3.8 3 3.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nairobi United down, APS Bomet across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 FKF Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nairobi United at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). APS Bomet away: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Nairobi United, 0.99 for APS Bomet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~APS 0–0 NAI · NAI 1–2 APS · APS 0–0 NAI · NAI 1–0 APS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

NAIROBI UNITED

DD2–2 · 0–0

APS BOMET

DL0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2
13	Bandari	3	−1	2
14	Mathare United	3	−1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0