Murang'a SEAL v Posta Rangers FC prediction · FKF Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Murang'a SEAL 5–1 Posta Rangers FC MURANG'A SEAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Murang'a SEAL win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Murang'a SEAL win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Murang'a SEAL was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Murang'a SEAL v Posta Rangers FC
28′A goal for Murang'a SEAL on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Murang'a SEAL 1–0 Posta Rangers FC
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Murang'a SEAL win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
29′We published Murang'a SEAL at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
44′Murang'a SEAL score on 44′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Murang'a SEAL 2–0 Posta Rangers FC
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Murang'a SEAL win: 40% at kick-off, 93% now
45′We published Murang'a SEAL at 40%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Murang'a SEAL 3–0 Posta Rangers FC
46′SECOND HALF Murang'a SEAL 3–0 Posta Rangers FC
48′Murang'a SEAL find the net on 45′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
48′We published Murang'a SEAL at 40%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Murang'a SEAL 3–0 Posta Rangers FC
59′We published Murang'a SEAL at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Murang'a SEAL win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′A goal for Murang'a SEAL on 82′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Murang'a SEAL 4–0 Posta Rangers FC
83′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′Murang'a SEAL score on 84′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
84′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Murang'a SEAL 5–0 Posta Rangers FC
91′Posta Rangers FC find the net on 90′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Murang'a SEAL 5–1 Posta Rangers FC
92′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Murang'a SEAL 5–1 Posta Rangers FC
FTMurang'a SEAL 5–1 Posta Rangers FC · Murang'a SEAL win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Murang'a SEAL are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Murang'a SEAL 40%, draw 28%, Posta Rangers FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Murang'a SEAL v Posta Rangers FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 22:02 · locked at kick-off

Murang'a SEAL win40%

Draw28%

Posta Rangers FC win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Murang'a SEAL

Posta Rangers FC

5Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · murang'a seal winFirst published 16 Oct 22:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Murang'a SEAL a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Murang'a SEAL v Posta Rangers FC~~1.27 – 1.10

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~17 v 15

~~The market · Murang'a SEAL win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Murang'a SEAL win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Murang'a SEAL win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Posta Rangers FC win	32%	28%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	38%	+4
Both teams to score	48%	45%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	19%	+3
Murang'a SEAL or draw	68%	72%	−4
Murang'a SEAL clean sheet	34%	–	–
Posta Rangers FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.0 10.0 5.7 2.1 1 11.6 13.2 7.0 2.6 2 7.5 8.1 4.4 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Murang'a SEAL down, Posta Rangers FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,535 FKF Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Murang'a SEAL at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Posta Rangers FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Murang'a SEAL, 1.10 for Posta Rangers FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MUR 1–0 POS · POS 2–2 MUR · POS 3–2 MUR · MUR 1–0 POS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

MURANG'A SEAL

L2–4

POSTA RANGERS FC

L0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	2	+3	6
2	KCB	2	+1	4
3	Tusker	1	+2	3
4	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
5	Shabana	1	+1	3
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Kenya Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
12	Bandari	1	0	1
13	Mathare United	2	−1	1
14	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0