Murang'a SEAL v Nairobi United prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Murang'a SEALDrawNairobi United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nairobi United 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nairobi United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Murang'a SEAL 33%, draw 27%, Nairobi United 40%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Murang'a SEAL v Nairobi UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Murang'a SEAL win33%

Draw27%

Nairobi United win40%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Murang'a SEAL

Nairobi United

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nairobi united winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Nairobi United a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Murang'a SEAL v Nairobi United~~1.19 – 1.35

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Murang'a SEAL win	33%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Nairobi United win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Murang'a SEAL or draw	60%	–	–
Murang'a SEAL clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nairobi United clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.7 10.3 7.2 3.3 1 9.1 12.9 8.3 3.8 2 5.6 7.4 4.9 2.2 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Murang'a SEAL down, Nairobi United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 FKF Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Murang'a SEAL at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nairobi United away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Murang'a SEAL, 1.35 for Nairobi United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUR 2–4 NAI · NAI 1–1 MUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

MURANG'A SEAL

LW2–4 · 5–1

NAIROBI UNITED

DD2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Bandari	3	−1	2
13	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
14	Migori Youth	1	0	1
15	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
16	Mathare United	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0