Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Murang'a SEAL are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Murang'a SEAL 41%, draw 29%, Mathare United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Murang'a SEAL v Mathare UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Murang'a SEAL win41%

Draw29%

Mathare United win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Murang'a SEAL

Mathare United

3Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · murang'a seal winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Murang'a SEAL a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United~~1.23 – 1.01

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~17 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Murang'a SEAL win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Murang'a SEAL win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Mathare United win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Murang'a SEAL or draw	70%	–	–
Murang'a SEAL clean sheet	37%	–	–
Mathare United clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 10.4 5.5 1 12.7 13.4 6.5 2.2 2 8.0 7.9 4.0 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Murang'a SEAL down, Mathare United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Murang'a SEAL at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mathare United away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Murang'a SEAL, 1.01 for Mathare United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MUR 1–1 MAT · MAT 0–2 MUR · MUR 1–1 MAT · MAT 0–2 MUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

MURANG'A SEAL

L2–4

MATHARE UNITED

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0