Mathare United v Tusker prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mathare UnitedDrawTusker

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tusker 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tusker are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mathare United 26%, draw 32%, Tusker 41%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Mathare United v TuskerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mathare United win26%

Draw32%

Tusker win41%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mathare United

Tusker

5Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
14	Mathare United	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tusker winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Tusker a 41% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mathare United v Tusker~~0.80 – 1.09

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mathare United win	26%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Tusker win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Mathare United or draw	59%	–	–
Mathare United clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tusker clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.9 15.8 8.9 3.3 1 11.7 13.4 7.0 2.6 2 4.9 5.2 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mathare United down, Tusker across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 FKF Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mathare United at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tusker away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Mathare United, 1.09 for Tusker. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MAT 3–1 TUS · TUS 0–0 MAT · MAT 2–1 TUS · TUS 2–0 MAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

MATHARE UNITED

DLD0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

TUSKER

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2
13	Bandari	3	−1	2
14	Mathare United	3	−1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0