Mathare United v Homeboyz prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Homeboyz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mathare United 24%, draw 30%, Homeboyz 46%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Mathare United v HomeboyzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Mathare United win24%

Draw30%

Homeboyz win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mathare United

Homeboyz

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
14	Mathare United	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · homeboyz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · postponed, not graded

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Homeboyz a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mathare United v Homeboyz~~0.85 – 1.29

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~14 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Homeboyz win

Published at 47%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mathare United win	24%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Homeboyz win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Mathare United or draw	54%	–	–
Mathare United clean sheet	28%	–	–
Homeboyz clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.6%

0123450 12.5 14.6 9.7 4.3 1 9.6 13.1 8.1 3.5 2 4.3 5.4 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mathare United down, Homeboyz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 FKF Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mathare United at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Homeboyz away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Mathare United, 1.29 for Homeboyz. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HOM 3–0 MAT · MAT 2–0 HOM · MAT 0–1 HOM · HOM 0–0 MAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

MATHARE UNITED

DL0–0 · 0–1

HOMEBOYZ

WD1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	2	+3	6
2	Mara Sugar	2	+1	4
3	KCB	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
7	Tusker	1	+2	3
8	3K	2	0	2
9	Nairobi United	2	0	2
10	Bandari	2	0	2
11	Kenya Police	1	0	1
12	Migori Youth	1	0	1
13	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
14	Mathare United	2	−1	1
15	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
16	Ulinzi Stars	2	−2	1
17	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0
18	Posta Rangers FC	2	−5	0