Mara Sugar v AFC Leopards prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mara SugarDrawAFC Leopards

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AFC Leopards 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Leopards are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mara Sugar 27%, draw 32%, AFC Leopards 41%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Mara Sugar v AFC LeopardsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mara Sugar win27%

Draw32%

AFC Leopards win41%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mara Sugar

AFC Leopards

4Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 20 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc leopards winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make AFC Leopards a 41% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mara Sugar v AFC Leopards~~0.86 – 1.13

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W1 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mara Sugar win	27%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
AFC Leopards win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Mara Sugar or draw	59%	–	–
Mara Sugar clean sheet	33%	–	–
AFC Leopards clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.0%

0123450 14.6 15.0 8.7 3.3 1 11.3 13.5 7.3 2.8 2 5.1 5.6 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mara Sugar down, AFC Leopards across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 FKF Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mara Sugar at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Leopards away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Mara Sugar, 1.13 for AFC Leopards. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AFC 2–1 MAR · MAR 2–0 AFC · MAR 1–2 AFC · AFC 1–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

MARA SUGAR

DWD2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

AFC LEOPARDS

DW0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2
13	Bandari	3	−1	2
14	Mathare United	3	−1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0