KCB v Mathare United prediction · FKF Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

KCB 1–0 Mathare United KCB WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said KCB win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KCB win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: KCB was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–26
1′KICK-OFF KCB v Mathare United
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was KCB win 36%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME KCB 0–0 Mathare United
46′SECOND HALF KCB 0–0 Mathare United
47′We said KCB at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–47–21
52′KCB score on 51′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
52′We published KCB at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–17–3
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' KCB 1–0 Mathare United
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 80% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' KCB win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' KCB
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 30% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was KCB win 30%)
54′We said KCB at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
64′We said KCB at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
71′We said KCB at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–13
77′We said KCB at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said KCB at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
87′KCB score on 87′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' KCB 1–0 Mathare United
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' KCB win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
88′We published KCB at 44%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' KCB win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME KCB 1–0 Mathare United
FTKCB 1–0 Mathare United · KCB win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KCB are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KCB 44%, draw 30%, Mathare United 26%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on KCB v Mathare UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 16:03 · locked at kick-off

KCB win44%

Draw30%

Mathare United win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KCB

Mathare United

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	KCB	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kcb winFirst published 16 Oct 16:03 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make KCB a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KCB v Mathare United~~1.22 – 0.87

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KCB win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Mathare United win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
KCB or draw	74%	–	–
KCB clean sheet	42%	–	–
Mathare United clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 13.0 10.4 4.7 1 14.6 13.3 5.6 2 9.1 7.8 3.4 3 3.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KCB down, Mathare United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.71 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KCB at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mathare United away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for KCB, 0.87 for Mathare United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MAT 1–2 KCB · KCB 0–1 MAT · KCB 1–1 MAT · MAT 1–0 KCB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

KCB

D2–2

MATHARE UNITED

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Kenya Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0