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Homeboyz v Ulinzi Stars
Homeboyz
Ulinzi StarsFKF Premier League · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Homeboyz win at 45%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Homeboyz 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–25
- 1′KICK-OFF Homeboyz v Ulinzi Stars
- 29′A goal for Ulinzi Stars on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–25–61
- 29′We said Homeboyz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Homeboyz win: 45% at kick-off, 14% now
- 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Ulinzi Stars win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Homeboyz win 14%)
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–61
- 45′We said Homeboyz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
- 45′HALF-TIME Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars
- 46′SECOND HALF Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Homeboyz win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 63′We said Homeboyz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- 84′Homeboyz score on 84′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–87–5
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Homeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars
- 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Ulinzi Stars win 5%)
- FTFULL TIME Homeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars
- FTHomeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars · Homeboyz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Homeboyz are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Homeboyz 45%, draw 30%, Ulinzi Stars 25%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 22:02 · locked at kick-off
Homeboyz win45%
Ulinzi Stars win25%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 2
Match timeline
All events
HomeboyzMIN
Ulinzi StarsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Homeboyz
Ulinzi Stars
Last match: 14 Oct · FKF Premier League
Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Homeboyz a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homeboyz win | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | +1 |
| Ulinzi Stars win | 25% | 20% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 40% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 21% | −5 |
| Homeboyz or draw | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Homeboyz clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Ulinzi Stars clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct
HOMEBOYZ
ULINZI STARS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | KCB | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Tusker | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabana | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 3K | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Kenya Police | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Migori Youth | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Bandari | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Mathare United | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 16 | Mombasa Elite | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 17 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 18 | Ulinzi Stars | 1 | −2 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
GOR Mahia
KCB
Tusker
Shabana
Mara Sugar
Nairobi United
3K
Kenya Police
Migori Youth
AFC Leopards
Bandari
Mathare United
APS Bomet
Posta Rangers FC
Mombasa Elite
Murang'a SEAL