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Homeboyz v Ulinzi Stars

Homeboyz
1–1Full time
Ulinzi Stars

FKF Premier League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Homeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars HOMEBOYZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Homeboyz win45%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.757
The market’s Brier score0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Homeboyz win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Homeboyz 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Homeboyz v Ulinzi Stars
  4. 29′A goal for Ulinzi Stars on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  5. 29′We said Homeboyz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  6. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars
  7. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Homeboyz win: 45% at kick-off, 14% now
  8. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Ulinzi Stars win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Homeboyz win 14%)
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–61
  10. 45′We said Homeboyz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars
  13. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Homeboyz win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  14. 63′We said Homeboyz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  15. 84′Homeboyz score on 84′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–87–5
  16. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Homeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars
  17. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Ulinzi Stars win 5%)
  18. FTFULL TIME Homeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars
  19. FTHomeboyz 1–1 Ulinzi Stars · Homeboyz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Homeboyz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Homeboyz 45%, draw 30%, Ulinzi Stars 25%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Homeboyz v Ulinzi StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 22:02 · locked at kick-off

Homeboyz win45%
Draw30%
Ulinzi Stars win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Homeboyz

Ulinzi Stars

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Homeboyz1+13
18Ulinzi Stars1−20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · homeboyz winFirst published 16 Oct 22:02 · locked at kick-off
45% The market51%
Us45%
Market51%

We make Homeboyz a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Homeboyz v Ulinzi Stars1.25 – 0.84
Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 OctW1 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L1
Table places · points 3 v 04 v 18
The market · Homeboyz win51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 16 OCT 22:1018 OCT 12:44
Our probability · Homeboyz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Homeboyz win45%51%−6
Draw30%29%+1
Ulinzi Stars win25%20%+5
Over 2.5 goals35%40%−5
Both teams to score40%43%−3
Over 1.5 goals62%64%−2
Over 3.5 goals16%21%−5
Homeboyz or draw75%80%−5
Homeboyz clean sheet43%––
Ulinzi Stars clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%
0123450 13.0 10.1 4.4 1 15.0 13.1 5.4 2 9.5 7.9 3.3 3 4.0 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Homeboyz down, Ulinzi Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.90
Over 2.52 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsHOM 0–1 ULI · ULI 1–1 HOM · HOM 3–1 ULI · ULI 0–0 HOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

HOMEBOYZ

W1–0

ULINZI STARS

L0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1GOR Mahia2+36
2KCB2+14
3Tusker1+23
4Homeboyz1+13
5Shabana1+13
6Mara Sugar101
7Nairobi United101
83K101
9Kenya Police101
10Migori Youth101
11AFC Leopards101
12Bandari101
13Mathare United2−11
14APS Bomet2−11
15Posta Rangers FC1−10
16Mombasa Elite1−10
17Murang'a SEAL1−20
18Ulinzi Stars1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.