Homeboyz v KCB prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Homeboyz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Homeboyz 44%, draw 29%, KCB 27%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Homeboyz v KCBBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Homeboyz win44%

Draw29%

KCB win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Homeboyz

KCB

2Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · homeboyz winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Homeboyz a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Homeboyz v KCB~~1.29 – 0.94

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Homeboyz win	44%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
KCB win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Homeboyz or draw	73%	–	–
Homeboyz clean sheet	39%	–	–
KCB clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 9.7 4.8 1 13.4 13.2 6.0 2 8.9 8.2 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Homeboyz down, KCB across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Homeboyz at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). KCB away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Homeboyz, 0.94 for KCB. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KCB 1–1 HOM · HOM 1–1 KCB · HOM 2–2 KCB · KCB 4–1 HOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

HOMEBOYZ

W1–0

KCB

D2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0