Homeboyz v GOR Mahia prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HomeboyzDrawGOR Mahia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · GOR Mahia 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GOR Mahia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Homeboyz 27%, draw 30%, GOR Mahia 43%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Homeboyz v GOR MahiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Homeboyz win27%

Draw30%

GOR Mahia win43%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Homeboyz

GOR Mahia

10Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 24 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gor mahia winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make GOR Mahia a 43% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Homeboyz v GOR Mahia~~0.93 – 1.25

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 13 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Homeboyz win	27%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
GOR Mahia win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Homeboyz or draw	57%	–	–
Homeboyz clean sheet	29%	–	–
GOR Mahia clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.1 13.6 8.8 3.7 1 10.1 13.4 8.0 3.4 2 4.9 6.0 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Homeboyz down, GOR Mahia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 FKF Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Homeboyz at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). GOR Mahia away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Homeboyz, 1.25 for GOR Mahia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOM 0–1 GOR · GOR 1–0 HOM · HOM 0–0 GOR · GOR 2–0 HOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 13 Oct

HOMEBOYZ

WD1–0 · 1–1

GOR MAHIA

WWW4–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2
13	Bandari	3	−1	2
14	Mathare United	3	−1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0