GOR Mahia v Murang'a SEAL prediction · FKF Premier League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

GOR Mahia 4–2 Murang'a SEAL GOR MAHIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GOR Mahia win~~57%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.275

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.221

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GOR Mahia win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: GOR Mahia 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
1′KICK-OFF GOR Mahia v Murang'a SEAL
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' GOR Mahia 1–0 Murang'a SEAL
6′GOR Mahia find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' GOR Mahia win: 57% at kick-off, 83% now
7′We said GOR Mahia at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
45′HALF-TIME GOR Mahia 1–0 Murang'a SEAL
46′SECOND HALF GOR Mahia 1–0 Murang'a SEAL
48′We said GOR Mahia at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
49′A goal for GOR Mahia on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' GOR Mahia 2–0 Murang'a SEAL
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' GOR Mahia win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
50′We said GOR Mahia at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' GOR Mahia 3–0 Murang'a SEAL
58′56′ and it is 3–0: GOR Mahia have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′We said GOR Mahia at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' GOR Mahia 4–0 Murang'a SEAL
63′GOR Mahia find the net on 62′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′A goal for Murang'a SEAL on 75′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' GOR Mahia 4–1 Murang'a SEAL
77′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' GOR Mahia 4–2 Murang'a SEAL
87′86′ and it is 4–2: Murang'a SEAL have scored. 4–2 · 100–0–0
88′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME GOR Mahia 4–2 Murang'a SEAL
FTGOR Mahia 4–2 Murang'a SEAL · GOR Mahia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

GOR Mahia win57%

Draw26%

Murang'a SEAL win17%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

GOR Mahia

Murang'a SEAL

135Days since last match135

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gor mahia winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make GOR Mahia a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gor mahia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GOR Mahia win	57%	62%	−5
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Murang'a SEAL win	17%	13%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Both teams to score	41%	38%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	65%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	21%	0
GOR Mahia or draw	83%	87%	−4
GOR Mahia clean sheet	48%	–	–
Murang'a SEAL clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 10.3 6.8 2.7 1 15.1 11.6 4.1 2 12.2 8.8 3.3 3 6.6 4.7 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GOR Mahia down, Murang'a SEAL across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,530 FKF Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GOR Mahia at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Murang'a SEAL away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for GOR Mahia, 0.73 for Murang'a SEAL. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MUR 1–3 GOR · GOR 3–2 MUR · MUR 0–0 GOR · GOR 2–2 MUR

Form · last six in FKF Premier League

GOR MAHIA

WWDWDL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

MURANG'A SEAL

LLWLWW0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tusker	1	+2	3
2	Shabana	1	+1	3
3	3K	1	0	1
4	KCB	1	0	1
5	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
6	Nairobi United	1	0	1
7	Migori Youth	1	0	1
8	Police	1	0	1
9	APS Bomet	1	0	1
10	Mathare United	1	0	1
11	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
12	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0