GOR Mahia v Bandari prediction · FKF Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

GOR Mahia 1–0 Bandari GOR MAHIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said GOR Mahia win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GOR Mahia win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: GOR Mahia 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–32–19
1′KICK-OFF GOR Mahia v Bandari
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' GOR Mahia win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was GOR Mahia win 41%)
39′We said GOR Mahia at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–45–17
42′GOR Mahia find the net on 42′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–3
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' GOR Mahia 1–0 Bandari
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' GOR Mahia win: 50% at kick-off, 84% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' GOR Mahia win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 47%)
43′We said GOR Mahia at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' GOR Mahia
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' GOR Mahia win: 50% at kick-off, 37% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was GOR Mahia win 84%)
45′HALF-TIME GOR Mahia 0–0 Bandari
46′SECOND HALF GOR Mahia 0–0 Bandari
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' GOR Mahia win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
58′We said GOR Mahia at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–13
65′We said GOR Mahia at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
69′GOR Mahia find the net on 69′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–10–1
69′We said GOR Mahia at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' GOR Mahia 1–0 Bandari
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' GOR Mahia win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' GOR Mahia win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 67%)
81′We said GOR Mahia at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME GOR Mahia 1–0 Bandari
FTGOR Mahia 1–0 Bandari · GOR Mahia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GOR Mahia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GOR Mahia 50%, draw 32%, Bandari 19%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on GOR Mahia v BandariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 03:41 · locked at kick-off

GOR Mahia win50%

Draw32%

Bandari win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GOR Mahia

Bandari

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 19 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gor mahia winFirst published 21 Oct 03:41 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make GOR Mahia a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GOR Mahia v Bandari~~1.20 – 0.62

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 13 Oct~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GOR Mahia win	50%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Bandari win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
GOR Mahia or draw	81%	–	–
GOR Mahia clean sheet	54%	–	–
Bandari clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.9%

0123450 16.9 9.7 3.2 1 18.9 12.2 3.7 2 11.6 7.1 2.2 3 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GOR Mahia down, Bandari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 FKF Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GOR Mahia at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bandari away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for GOR Mahia, 0.62 for Bandari. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GOR 0–0 BAN · BAN 1–1 GOR · BAN 0–2 GOR · GOR 2–0 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 13 Oct

GOR MAHIA

WW4–2 · 1–0

BANDARI

DD0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	2	+3	6
2	Mara Sugar	2	+1	4
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Bandari	2	0	2
13	Migori Youth	1	0	1
14	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
15	Mathare United	2	−1	1
16	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
17	Ulinzi Stars	2	−2	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0