Bandari v Posta Rangers FC prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BandariDrawPosta Rangers FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bandari 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bandari are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bandari 42%, draw 33%, Posta Rangers FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Bandari v Posta Rangers FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bandari win42%

Draw33%

Posta Rangers FC win25%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bandari

Posta Rangers FC

4Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 23 Oct · FKF Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
12	Bandari	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bandari winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Bandari a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bandari v Posta Rangers FC~~1.08 – 0.76

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bandari win

Published at 43%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bandari win	42%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Posta Rangers FC win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Bandari or draw	75%	–	–
Bandari clean sheet	47%	–	–
Posta Rangers FC clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 16.6 11.6 4.6 1 16.7 13.2 4.9 2 9.2 6.9 2.6 3 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bandari down, Posta Rangers FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 FKF Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bandari at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Posta Rangers FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Bandari, 0.76 for Posta Rangers FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–1 POS · POS 0–0 BAN · BAN 1–1 POS · POS 1–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

BANDARI

DDL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

POSTA RANGERS FC

LLW0–1 · 1–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Bandari	3	−1	2
13	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
14	Migori Youth	1	0	1
15	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
16	Mathare United	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0