APS Bomet v GOR Mahia prediction · FKF Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

APS Bomet 0–1 GOR Mahia GOR MAHIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said GOR Mahia win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.416

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GOR Mahia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: APS Bomet 23%, draw 29%, GOR Mahia 47%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on APS Bomet v GOR MahiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 16:03 · locked at kick-off

APS Bomet win23%

Draw29%

GOR Mahia win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

APS Bomet

GOR Mahia

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 13 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gor mahia winFirst published 16 Oct 16:03 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make GOR Mahia a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · APS Bomet v GOR Mahia~~0.84 – 1.32

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
APS Bomet win	23%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
GOR Mahia win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
APS Bomet or draw	53%	–	–
APS Bomet clean sheet	27%	–	–
GOR Mahia clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%

0123450 12.3 14.8 10.0 4.5 1 9.3 12.9 8.2 3.6 2 4.1 5.3 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+APS Bomet down, GOR Mahia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

APS Bomet at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). GOR Mahia away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for APS Bomet, 1.32 for GOR Mahia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~APS 1–2 GOR · GOR 1–4 APS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

APS BOMET

D0–0

GOR MAHIA

W4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Kenya Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0