APS Bomet v Bandari prediction · FKF Premier League

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with APS Bomet just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: APS Bomet 35%, draw 35%, Bandari 30%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on APS Bomet v BandariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

APS Bomet win35%

Draw35%

Bandari win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

APS Bomet

Bandari

6Days since last match2

Last match: 10 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 14 Oct · FKF Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aps bomet winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

35% The market–

Us35%

We make APS Bomet a 35% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · APS Bomet v Bandari~~0.90 – 0.81

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · APS Bomet win

Published at 36%, 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
APS Bomet win	35%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Bandari win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
APS Bomet or draw	70%	–	–
APS Bomet clean sheet	45%	–	–
Bandari clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.8%

0123450 18.8 14.2 5.9 1 15.8 13.3 5.2 2 7.3 5.8 2.4 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+APS Bomet down, Bandari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,533 FKF Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

APS Bomet at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bandari away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for APS Bomet, 0.81 for Bandari. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 0–2 APS · APS 1–0 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

APS BOMET

D0–0

BANDARI

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	1	+2	3
2	Tusker	1	+2	3
3	Homeboyz	1	+1	3
4	Shabana	1	+1	3
5	KCB	1	0	1
6	Mara Sugar	1	0	1
7	Nairobi United	1	0	1
8	3K	1	0	1
9	Police	1	0	1
10	Migori Youth	1	0	1
11	Mathare United	1	0	1
12	AFC Leopards	1	0	1
13	Bandari	1	0	1
14	APS Bomet	1	0	1
15	Posta Rangers FC	1	−1	0
16	Mombasa Elite	1	−1	0
17	Murang'a SEAL	1	−2	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	−2	0