AFC Leopards v Shabana prediction · FKF Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AFC LeopardsDrawShabana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:15

Before kick-off · Match result · AFC Leopards 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Leopards are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Leopards 43%, draw 31%, Shabana 26%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on AFC Leopards v ShabanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 03:41 · locked at kick-off

AFC Leopards win43%

Draw31%

Shabana win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Leopards

Shabana

5Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · FKF Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc leopards winFirst published 21 Oct 03:41 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make AFC Leopards a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Leopards v Shabana~~1.17 – 0.85

~~Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Leopards win	43%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Shabana win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
AFC Leopards or draw	74%	–	–
AFC Leopards clean sheet	43%	–	–
Shabana clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 14.0 10.9 4.8 1 15.0 13.4 5.5 2 9.0 7.5 3.2 3 3.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Leopards down, Shabana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 FKF Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FKF Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Leopards at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Shabana away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for AFC Leopards, 0.85 for Shabana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AFC 5–1 SHA · SHA 1–2 AFC · AFC 1–1 SHA · SHA 2–1 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FKF Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

AFC LEOPARDS

DW0–0 · 2–1

SHABANA

WD1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	3	+4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	+1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	+1	4
6	KCB	3	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	+2	3
8	Tusker	1	+2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	−4	3
10	3K	2	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2
12	Bandari	3	−1	2
13	Ulinzi Stars	3	−2	2
14	Migori Youth	1	0	1
15	Kenya Police	2	−1	1
16	Mathare United	2	−1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	−1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	−2	0