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AFC Leopards v Bandari
AFC LeopardsBandariFKF Premier League · WED 14 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Leopards win at 41%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: AFC Leopards 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–33–25
- 1′KICK-OFF AFC Leopards v Bandari
- 13′A goal for AFC Leopards on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' AFC Leopards 1–0 Bandari
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' AFC Leopards win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
- 13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' AFC Leopards
- 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' AFC Leopards win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
- 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' AFC Leopards 1–0 Bandari
- 19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' AFC Leopards
- 20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' AFC Leopards
- 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was AFC Leopards win 36%)
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' AFC Leopards win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
- 45′HALF-TIME AFC Leopards 0–0 Bandari
- 46′SECOND HALF AFC Leopards 0–0 Bandari
- 48′We said AFC Leopards at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
- 59′We said AFC Leopards at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' AFC Leopards win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
- 69′We said AFC Leopards at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–69–12
- 75′We said AFC Leopards at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' AFC Leopards win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
- 81′We said AFC Leopards at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 88′We said AFC Leopards at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME AFC Leopards 0–0 Bandari
- FTAFC Leopards 0–0 Bandari · AFC Leopards win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
AFC Leopards win41%Bandari win25%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00
Match timeline
All events
AFC LeopardsMINBandariEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
AFC Leopards
Bandari
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bandari | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make AFC Leopards a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards win | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Draw | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Bandari win | 25% | 24% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 29% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 33% | 36% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 13% | −3 |
| AFC Leopards or draw | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| AFC Leopards clean sheet | 49% | – | – |
| Bandari clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
10 meetings since 2021Form · last six in FKF Premier League
AFC LEOPARDS
BANDARI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Tusker | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Shabana | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 |  KCB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 |  Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 |  Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 |  3K | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Police | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Migori Youth | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bandari | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Mombasa Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Posta Rangers FC | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Murang'a SEAL | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Ulinzi Stars | 1 | -2 | 0 |
The competition's standings.