Yapei v Bectero Sasana prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Yapei 2–0 Bectero Sasana YAPEI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yapei win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.387

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yapei are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yapei 49%, draw 26%, Bectero Sasana 25%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Yapei v Bectero SasanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yapei win49%

Draw26%

Bectero Sasana win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yapei

Bectero Sasana

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Division One League

Last match: 11 Oct · Division One League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bectero Sasana	4	+1	7
6	Yapei	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yapei winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Yapei a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yapei v Bectero Sasana~~1.43 – 0.92

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yapei win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yapei win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bectero Sasana win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Yapei or draw	75%	–	–
Yapei clean sheet	40%	–	–
Bectero Sasana clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 9.5 9.4 4.1 1 14.1 11.8 5.6 2 9.6 8.6 4.0 3 4.7 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yapei down, Bectero Sasana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 802 Division One League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.8% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Yapei at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bectero Sasana away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Yapei, 0.92 for Bectero Sasana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept

YAPEI

WLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4

BECTERO SASANA

LWWD0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · group 4

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VC Warriors	4	+7	10
2	Mighty Royals	4	+3	7
3	Techiman Liberty	4	+2	7
4	Bectero Sasana	4	+1	7
5	Dormaa	4	+1	7
6	Yapei	4	−3	4
7	Eleven Wonders	4	−5	1
8	KAC Soccer	4	−6	1