True Democracy v Nania prediction · Division One League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

True DemocracyDrawNania

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · True Democracy 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

True Democracy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: True Democracy 48%, draw 30%, Nania 22%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on True Democracy v NaniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the plans

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

True Democracy win48%

Draw30%

Nania win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

True Democracy

Nania

13Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Division One League

Last match: 17 Oct · Division One League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Nania	5	0	7
11	True Democracy	5	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · true democracy winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make True Democracy a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. The market has not priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · True Democracy v Nania~~1.17 – 0.68

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	US	MARKET	GAP
True Democracy win	48%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Nania win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
True Democracy or draw	78%	–	–
True Democracy clean sheet	51%	–	–
Nania clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market has not priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.1%

0123450 15.2 11.4 3.6 1 19.1 11.6 4.2 2 10.7 7.2 2.4 3 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+True Democracy down, Nania across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 825 Division One League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 24.2% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

True Democracy at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nania away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for True Democracy, 0.68 for Nania. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAN 1–1 TRU · TRU 1–1 NAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 18 Sept

TRUE DEMOCRACY

DDWLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

NANIA

DLWWL0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Division One League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Koforidua	5	+11	13
2	Inter Allies	5	+4	11
3	Hakla SC	5	+3	9
4	Accra Lions	5	+3	8
5	Okwawu	5	+1	8
6	WAFA	5	−3	8
7	Golden Kicks	5	+2	7
8	7th Wave	5	+1	7
9	Nania	5	0	7
10	Home Stars	5	+1	6
11	True Democracy	5	−2	6
12	Attram de Visser	5	−2	5
13	Great Olympics	5	−2	4
14	Nukunu	5	−5	4
15	Kotoku Royals	5	−5	2
16	Golden Warriors	5	−7	0