True Democracy v Accra Lions prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

True Democracy 0–3 Accra Lions TRUE DEMOCRACY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said True Democracy win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.945

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

True Democracy win52%

Draw27%

Accra Lions win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

True Democracy

Accra Lions

7Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	True Democracy	3	+1	5
24	Accra Lions	3	0	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · true democracy winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

52% The market–

Us52%

We make True Democracy a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
True Democracy win	52%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Accra Lions win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
True Democracy or draw	78%	–	–
True Democracy clean sheet	45%	–	–
Accra Lions clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%

0123450 10.9 9.4 3.6 1 16.0 11.8 4.9 2 10.8 8.5 3.4 3 5.1 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+True Democracy down, Accra Lions across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 788 Division One League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 22.9% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

True Democracy at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Accra Lions away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for True Democracy, 0.80 for Accra Lions. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRU 0–1 ACC · ACC 1–1 TRU

Form · last six in Division One League

TRUE DEMOCRACY

LWLDDW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

ACCRA LIONS

LWDWDL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VC Warriors	4	+7	10
2	Koforidua	4	+6	10
3	Sankara Nationals	4	+3	10
4	Hakla SC	4	+3	8
5	Inter Allies	4	+3	8
6	Nations	4	+3	8
7	Pro-Sports Academy	4	+5	7
8	Mighty Royals	3	+4	7
9	Real Tamale	4	+3	7
10	Steadfast	4	+3	7
11	WAFA	3	+2	7
12	Nsuopun Fidelity	3	+2	7
13	Nania	4	+1	7
14	Okwawu	4	+1	7
15	Ebusua Dwarfs	3	+1	6
16	Bectero Sasana	3	+1	6
17	Ebony FC	3	+1	6
18	Ebiemo FC	4	0	6
19	Fettehman United	3	+2	5
20	True Democracy	3	+1	5
21	Elmina Sharks	4	−1	5
22	Golden Kicks	3	+1	4
23	Techiman Liberty	3	+1	4
24	Accra Lions	3	0	4
25	Dormaa	3	0	4
26	King Faisal	3	0	4
27	Tamale City	4	−1	4
28	Rospak	4	−1	4
29	Kalibi SC	3	−2	4
30	Yapei	4	−3	4
31	Berekum City	4	−3	4
32	Sefwi All Stars	3	0	3
33	7th Wave	3	0	3
34	Soccer Intellectuals	3	0	3
35	Home Stars	3	0	3
36	Skyy	3	−2	3
37	Future Stars	3	−5	3
38	Wa Power	3	−1	2
39	Kotoku Royals	3	−2	2
40	Northern City	4	−2	2
41	Attram de Visser	4	−3	2
42	PAC Academy	3	−2	1
43	Great Olympics	4	−3	1
44	New Edubiase	4	−3	1
45	Eleven Wonders	3	−4	1
46	Nukunu	4	−6	1
47	Golden Warriors	3	−4	0
48	KAC Soccer	3	−6	0