Tamale City v Real Tamale prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Tamale City 0–1 Real Tamale TAMALE CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tamale City win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tamale City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tamale City 44%, draw 28%, Real Tamale 28%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Tamale City v Real TamaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tamale City win44%

Draw28%

Real Tamale win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tamale City

Real Tamale

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Division One League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Real Tamale	4	+3	7
6	Tamale City	4	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tamale city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Tamale City a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tamale City v Real Tamale~~1.20 – 0.89

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tamale City win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Real Tamale win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Tamale City or draw	72%	–	–
Tamale City clean sheet	41%	–	–
Real Tamale clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 12.0 11.6 4.9 1 15.4 12.4 5.8 2 8.9 7.8 3.5 3 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tamale City down, Real Tamale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 809 Division One League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tamale City at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Tamale away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Tamale City, 0.89 for Real Tamale. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~REA 3–0 TAM · TAM 0–0 REA · REA 1–2 TAM · TAM 0–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept

TAMALE CITY

WLDL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

REAL TAMALE

DWLW1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 3

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sankara Nationals	5	+4	13
2	Steadfast	5	+3	8
3	Real Tamale	4	+3	7
4	Wa Power	4	+2	5
5	Kalibi SC	5	−5	5
6	Tamale City	4	−1	4
7	Berekum City	4	−3	4
8	Northern City	5	−3	2