Okwawu v True Democracy prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Okwawu 0–0 True Democracy OKWAWU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Okwawu win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.819

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Okwawu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Okwawu 46%, draw 27%, True Democracy 27%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Okwawu v True DemocracyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Okwawu win46%

Draw27%

True Democracy win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Okwawu

True Democracy

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Division One League

Last match: 11 Oct · Division One League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Okwawu	4	+1	7
11	True Democracy	4	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · okwawu winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Okwawu a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Okwawu v True Democracy~~1.32 – 0.93

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Okwawu win

Published at 44%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Okwawu win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
True Democracy win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Okwawu or draw	73%	–	–
Okwawu clean sheet	40%	–	–
True Democracy clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 10.2 10.5 4.6 1 14.4 12.2 6.0 2 9.1 8.3 3.9 3 4.0 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Okwawu down, True Democracy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 809 Division One League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Okwawu at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). True Democracy away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Okwawu, 0.93 for True Democracy. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OKW 1–3 TRU · TRU 2–1 OKW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 18 Sept

OKWAWU

LWWD1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

TRUE DEMOCRACY

DDWL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Allies	5	+4	11
2	Koforidua	4	+6	10
3	Hakla SC	4	+3	8
4	WAFA	4	+2	8
5	Accra Lions	4	+3	7
6	Golden Kicks	5	+2	7
7	Okwawu	4	+1	7
8	Nania	5	0	7
9	Home Stars	4	+2	6
10	Attram de Visser	5	−2	5
11	True Democracy	4	−2	5
12	7th Wave	4	0	4
13	Kotoku Royals	4	−4	2
14	Great Olympics	4	−3	1
15	Nukunu	4	−6	1
16	Golden Warriors	4	−6	0