Northern City v Sankara Nationals prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Northern City 0–1 Sankara Nationals NORTHERN CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Northern City win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Northern City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Northern City 50%, draw 25%, Sankara Nationals 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Northern City v Sankara NationalsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Northern City win50%

Draw25%

Sankara Nationals win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Northern City

Sankara Nationals

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division One League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · northern city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Northern City a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Northern City v Sankara Nationals~~1.52 – 0.98

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 10~~8 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Northern City win	50%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Sankara Nationals win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Northern City or draw	75%	–	–
Northern City clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sankara Nationals clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.0 8.6 4.0 1 12.9 11.6 5.9 2 9.4 9.0 4.4 3 4.8 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Northern City down, Sankara Nationals across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 802 Division One League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.8% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Northern City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sankara Nationals away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Northern City, 0.98 for Sankara Nationals. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOR 3–2 SAN · SAN 0–0 NOR · NOR 4–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept

NORTHERN CITY

LDDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

SANKARA NATIONALS

DWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 3

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sankara Nationals	4	+3	10
2	Real Tamale	4	+3	7
3	Steadfast	4	+3	7
4	Wa Power	4	+2	5
5	Tamale City	4	−1	4
6	Berekum City	4	−3	4
7	Kalibi SC	4	−5	4
8	Northern City	4	−2	2