King Faisal v Ebony FC prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

King Faisal 0–1 Ebony FC KING FAISAL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said King Faisal win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

King Faisal are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: King Faisal 47%, draw 29%, Ebony FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on King Faisal v Ebony FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

King Faisal win47%

Draw29%

Ebony FC win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

King Faisal

Ebony FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division One League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ebony FC	4	+1	7
13	King Faisal	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · king faisal winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make King Faisal a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · King Faisal v Ebony FC~~1.21 – 0.78

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · King Faisal win

Published at 48%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
King Faisal win	47%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Ebony FC win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
King Faisal or draw	75%	–	–
King Faisal clean sheet	46%	–	–
Ebony FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 13.3 11.3 4.2 1 17.0 12.2 5.0 2 9.9 7.7 3.0 3 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+King Faisal down, Ebony FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 809 Division One League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

King Faisal at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ebony FC away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for King Faisal, 0.78 for Ebony FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KIN 4–1 EBO · EBO 0–0 KIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 19 Sept

KING FAISAL

WDLL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–3

EBONY FC

WWLD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ebusua Dwarfs	5	+3	12
2	Pro-Sports Academy	5	+6	10
3	Nations	4	+3	8
4	Nsuopun Fidelity	5	+1	8
5	Skyy	5	+1	7
6	Ebony FC	4	+1	7
7	Fettehman United	4	+2	6
8	Soccer Intellectuals	4	+1	6
9	Ebiemo FC	5	−1	6
10	Elmina Sharks	4	−1	5
11	PAC Academy	4	−1	4
12	Rospak	4	−1	4
13	King Faisal	4	−3	4
14	Sefwi All Stars	4	−1	3
15	Future Stars	4	−6	3
16	New Edubiase	5	−4	1