Kalibi SC v Steadfast prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Kalibi SC 1–1 Steadfast KALIBI SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kalibi SC win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kalibi SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalibi SC 41%, draw 27%, Steadfast 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Kalibi SC v SteadfastBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kalibi SC win41%

Draw27%

Steadfast win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalibi SC

Steadfast

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Division One League

Last match: 9 Oct · Division One League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Steadfast	4	+3	7
7	Kalibi SC	4	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kalibi sc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Kalibi SC a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalibi SC v Steadfast~~1.24 – 1.03

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kalibi SC win

Published at 44%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalibi SC win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Steadfast win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Kalibi SC or draw	69%	–	–
Kalibi SC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Steadfast clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.4 11.2 5.5 1 13.3 12.3 6.5 2.3 2 7.9 7.8 4.0 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalibi SC down, Steadfast across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 802 Division One League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.8% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kalibi SC at home: 0.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Steadfast away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Kalibi SC, 1.03 for Steadfast. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 18 Sept

KALIBI SC

WLDL1–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–3

STEADFAST

DWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · group 3

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sankara Nationals	4	+3	10
2	Real Tamale	4	+3	7
3	Steadfast	4	+3	7
4	Wa Power	4	+2	5
5	Tamale City	4	−1	4
6	Berekum City	4	−3	4
7	Kalibi SC	4	−5	4
8	Northern City	4	−2	2