Home Stars v Kotoku Royals prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Home Stars 2–0 Kotoku Royals HOME STARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Home Stars win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.397

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Home Stars win49%

Draw31%

Kotoku Royals win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Home Stars

Kotoku Royals

9Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
35	Home Stars	3	0	3
39	Kotoku Royals	3	−2	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · home stars winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Home Stars a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · home stars win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Home Stars win	49%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Kotoku Royals win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Home Stars or draw	80%	–	–
Home Stars clean sheet	54%	–	–
Kotoku Royals clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.9%

0123450 17.0 11.1 3.3 1 19.9 11.4 3.7 2 11.1 6.8 2.1 3 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Home Stars down, Kotoku Royals across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 788 Division One League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 22.9% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Home Stars at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kotoku Royals away: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Home Stars, 0.62 for Kotoku Royals. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2025

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Division One League

HOME STARS

DLLDDD1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

KOTOKU ROYALS

DDL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VC Warriors	4	+7	10
2	Koforidua	4	+6	10
3	Sankara Nationals	4	+3	10
4	Hakla SC	4	+3	8
5	Inter Allies	4	+3	8
6	Nations	4	+3	8
7	Pro-Sports Academy	4	+5	7
8	Mighty Royals	3	+4	7
9	Real Tamale	4	+3	7
10	Steadfast	4	+3	7
11	WAFA	3	+2	7
12	Nsuopun Fidelity	3	+2	7
13	Nania	4	+1	7
14	Okwawu	4	+1	7
15	Ebusua Dwarfs	3	+1	6
16	Bectero Sasana	3	+1	6
17	Ebony FC	3	+1	6
18	Ebiemo FC	4	0	6
19	Fettehman United	3	+2	5
20	True Democracy	3	+1	5
21	Elmina Sharks	4	−1	5
22	Golden Kicks	3	+1	4
23	Techiman Liberty	3	+1	4
24	Accra Lions	3	0	4
25	Dormaa	3	0	4
26	King Faisal	3	0	4
27	Tamale City	4	−1	4
28	Rospak	4	−1	4
29	Kalibi SC	3	−2	4
30	Yapei	4	−3	4
31	Berekum City	4	−3	4
32	Sefwi All Stars	3	0	3
33	7th Wave	3	0	3
34	Soccer Intellectuals	3	0	3
35	Home Stars	3	0	3
36	Skyy	3	−2	3
37	Future Stars	3	−5	3
38	Wa Power	3	−1	2
39	Kotoku Royals	3	−2	2
40	Northern City	4	−2	2
41	Attram de Visser	4	−3	2
42	PAC Academy	3	−2	1
43	Great Olympics	4	−3	1
44	New Edubiase	4	−3	1
45	Eleven Wonders	3	−4	1
46	Nukunu	4	−6	1
47	Golden Warriors	3	−4	0
48	KAC Soccer	3	−6	0