Great Olympics v Home Stars prediction · Division One League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Great Olympics 2–1 Home Stars GREAT OLYMPICS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Great Olympics win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Great Olympics are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Great Olympics 41%, draw 32%, Home Stars 27%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Great Olympics v Home StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Great Olympics win41%

Draw32%

Home Stars win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueWAFA Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Great Olympics

Home Stars

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division One League

Last match: 11 Oct · Division One League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Home Stars	4	+2	6
14	Great Olympics	4	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · great olympics winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Great Olympics a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Great Olympics v Home Stars~~0.99 – 0.74

~~Form · Division One League this season · since 20 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 6~~14 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Great Olympics win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Great Olympics win	41%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Home Stars win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Great Olympics or draw	73%	–	–
Great Olympics clean sheet	48%	–	–
Home Stars clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.1%

0123450 17.5 13.7 4.8 1 18.1 12.2 4.7 2 8.7 6.3 2.3 3 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Great Olympics down, Home Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 809 Division One League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division One League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Great Olympics at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Home Stars away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Great Olympics, 0.74 for Home Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRE 2–0 HOM · HOM 1–0 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division One League this season · since 20 Sept

GREAT OLYMPICS

DLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

HOME STARS

DDDW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Allies	5	+4	11
2	Koforidua	4	+6	10
3	Hakla SC	4	+3	8
4	WAFA	4	+2	8
5	Accra Lions	4	+3	7
6	Golden Kicks	5	+2	7
7	Okwawu	4	+1	7
8	Nania	5	0	7
9	Home Stars	4	+2	6
10	Attram de Visser	5	−2	5
11	True Democracy	4	−2	5
12	7th Wave	4	0	4
13	Kotoku Royals	4	−4	2
14	Great Olympics	4	−3	1
15	Nukunu	4	−6	1
16	Golden Warriors	4	−6	0