Home › Football › Kakkonen - Lohko A › Union Plaani v MyPa

Union Plaani v MyPa

Union Plaani

6–2Full time

MyPa

Kakkonen - Lohko A · SAT 10 OCT · Urheilupuisto N

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa UNION PLAANI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Plaani win~~48%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.097

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Plaani win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Union Plaani v MyPa
2′Little has changed for our model: Union Plaani 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–31
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Union Plaani 1–0 MyPa
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Union Plaani 1–1 MyPa
22′21′ and it is 1–1: K. Kaddouri on the scoresheet for MyPa. 1–1 · 45–25–30
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Union Plaani 2–1 MyPa
43′Union Plaani find the net on 40′. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–19–10
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Union Plaani win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Union Plaani 2–1 MyPa
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' Union Plaani 2–1 MyPa · V. Afila
46′We said Union Plaani at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 2–1 · 72–19–9
46′SECOND HALF Union Plaani 2–1 MyPa
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Union Plaani 3–1 MyPa
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' MyPa
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Union Plaani 4–1 MyPa
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Union Plaani 5–1 MyPa
68′Union Plaani ahead on 66′ through V. Afila. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Union Plaani win: 48% at kick-off, 100% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Union Plaani 6–1 MyPa
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' MyPa · On: A. Onatsu · Off: O. Rauhala
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Plaani · On: L. Ala-Kauhaluoma · Off: M. Al Sheikh
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Plaani · On: N. Kivisto · Off: N. Kuokkanen
86′⚽ GOAL · 10' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · S. Harjula
86′⚽ GOAL · 21' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · K. Kaddouri
86′🟨 YELLOW · 30' N. Ritola · MyPa
86′⚽ GOAL · 40' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · V. Afila
86′⚽ GOAL · 56' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · M. Al Sheikh
86′🟨 YELLOW · 61' V. Karppanen · MyPa
86′⚽ GOAL · 62' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · N. Kuokkanen
86′⚽ GOAL · 66' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · V. Afila
86′⚽ GOAL · 69' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · V. Afila
86′⚽ GOAL · 71' Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa · O. Haimi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 72' MyPa · On: A. Onatsu · Off: O. Rauhala
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Plaani · On: L. Ala-Kauhaluoma · Off: M. Al Sheikh
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Plaani · On: N. Kivisto · Off: N. Kuokkanen
89′71′ and it is 6–2: O. Haimi on the scoresheet for MyPa. 6–2 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Union Plaani
FTFULL TIME Union Plaani 6–2 MyPa
FTUnion Plaani 6–2 MyPa · Union Plaani win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Plaani win48%

Draw21%

MyPa win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Urheilupuisto N

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Union Plaani

Formation not confirmed

3 A. Solonen

10 S. Harjula

11 N. Kuokkanen

18 S. Paakkanen

26 H. Rowe

31 O. Hirvonen

33 J. Hahl

34 V. Nikulainen

37 M. Al Sheikh

44 V. Afila

84 R. Lahti

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · L. Ala-Kauhaluoma

4 · J. Karjalainen

9 · N. Kivisto

12 · Y. Belabid

14 · T. Kurki

17 · T. Kettunen

28 · T. Abdi

29 · A. Nykanen

77 · M. Hassan

MyPa

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Laine

3 J. Erjanko

5 J. Rauos

6 M. Koykka

8 N. Ritola

9 O. Haimi

14 V. Piira

21 K. Mehtojarvi

26 K. Kaddouri

28 O. Rauhala

61 V. Karppanen

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · O. Eskelinen

13 · O. Kahkonen

15 · S. Hernesniemi

18 · A. Onatsu

20 · A. Saarelainen

37 · V. Niemi

99 · A. Kaikkonen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union Plaani

Formation not confirmed

3 A. Solonen

10 S. Harjula

11 N. Kuokkanen

18 S. Paakkanen

26 H. Rowe

31 O. Hirvonen

33 J. Hahl

34 V. Nikulainen

37 M. Al Sheikh

44 V. Afila

84 R. Lahti

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · L. Ala-Kauhaluoma

4 · J. Karjalainen

9 · N. Kivisto

12 · Y. Belabid

14 · T. Kurki

17 · T. Kettunen

28 · T. Abdi

29 · A. Nykanen

77 · M. Hassan

MyPa

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Laine

3 J. Erjanko

5 J. Rauos

6 M. Koykka

8 N. Ritola

9 O. Haimi

14 V. Piira

21 K. Mehtojarvi

26 K. Kaddouri

28 O. Rauhala

61 V. Karppanen

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · O. Eskelinen

13 · O. Kahkonen

15 · S. Hernesniemi

18 · A. Onatsu

20 · A. Saarelainen

37 · V. Niemi

99 · A. Kaikkonen

Our number · union plaani winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

48% The market75%

Us48%

~~Market~~75%

We make Union Plaani a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 27 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union plaani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Plaani win	48%	75%	−27
Draw	21%	15%	+7
MyPa win	31%	11%	+20
Over 2.5 goals	72%	80%	−8
Both teams to score	70%	67%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	89%	90%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	52%	64%	−13
Union Plaani or draw	69%	89%	−20
Union Plaani clean sheet	20%	–	–
MyPa clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.8 3.7 3.3 1 4.7 8.4 6.6 3.7 2 5.2 8.3 6.8 3.8 3 3.6 5.8 4.7 2.6 4 3.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Plaani down, MyPa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Kakkonen - Lohko A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Kakkonen - Lohko A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.3% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Plaani at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). MyPa away: 1.17 scored, 4.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Union Plaani, 1.66 for MyPa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MYP 2–3 UNI · MYP 2–0 UNI · UNI 1–3 MYP

Form · last six in Kakkonen - Lohko A

UNION PLAANI

WWWWDL1–0 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–4

MYPA

WWLLLL2–1 · 5–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–7 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kiffen	23	+18	51
2	PEPO	23	+13	43
3	Atlantis	23	+20	39
4	HIFK Helsinki	23	+9	34
5	Reipas	23	+5	30
6	PPJ	23	+2	30
7	HPS	23	−8	27
8	PuiU Helsinki	23	−9	24
9	Union Plaani	23	−23	24
10	MyPa	23	−27	18