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PuiU Helsinki v Reipas

PuiU Helsinki

0–0Full time

Reipas

Kakkonen - Lohko A · SAT 10 OCT · Puistolan liikuntapuisto

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

PuiU Helsinki 0–0 Reipas PUIU HELSINKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PuiU Helsinki win~~41%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.902

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.960

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PuiU Helsinki win at 41%.
2′Much as we predicted: PuiU Helsinki was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–22–36
2′KICK-OFF PuiU Helsinki v Reipas
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' PuiU Helsinki
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Reipas
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Reipas
45′HALF-TIME PuiU Helsinki 0–0 Reipas
46′SECOND HALF PuiU Helsinki 0–0 Reipas
60′PENALTY MISSED · 59' PuiU Helsinki
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Reipas · On: V. Viitanen · Off: A. Paalanen
67′PuiU Helsinki find the net on 59′. 0–0. 0–0 · 27–49–24
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' PuiU Helsinki · On: J. Ruumensaari · Off: E. Avdi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' PuiU Helsinki · On: R. Leskinen · Off: A. Oris
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' PuiU Helsinki win: 41% at kick-off, 27% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was PuiU Helsinki win 27%)
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' PuiU Helsinki · On: W. Cikala-Cimanga · Off: I. Abdirashid
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Reipas · On: H. Ayri · Off: E. Salmensuu
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Reipas · On: L. Jarvinen · Off: A. Babiker
85′🟨 YELLOW · 10' H. Mohamed · PuiU Helsinki
85′🟨 YELLOW · 11' E. Kuparinen · Reipas
85′🟨 YELLOW · 32' P. Flood · Reipas
85′PENALTY MISSED · 59' PuiU Helsinki
85′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Reipas · On: V. Viitanen · Off: A. Paalanen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 64' PuiU Helsinki · On: J. Ruumensaari · Off: E. Avdi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 64' PuiU Helsinki · On: R. Leskinen · Off: A. Oris
85′SUBSTITUTION · 74' PuiU Helsinki · On: W. Cikala-Cimanga · Off: I. Abdirashid
85′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Reipas · On: H. Ayri · Off: E. Salmensuu
85′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Reipas · On: L. Jarvinen · Off: A. Babiker
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Reipas · On: L. Kuusimaki · Off: P. Flood
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Reipas · On: M. Toukonen · Off: E. Kuparinen
89′We said PuiU Helsinki at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–0 · 2–96–2
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' PuiU Helsinki win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME PuiU Helsinki 0–0 Reipas
FTPuiU Helsinki 0–0 Reipas · PuiU Helsinki win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

PuiU Helsinki win41%

Draw23%

Reipas win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Puistolan liikuntapuisto

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

PuiU Helsinki

Formation not confirmed

2 I. Abdirashid

5 H. Mohamed

6 J. Sapienza

9 S. Nuorala

14 A. Oris

16 M. Rearte

18 T. Honkaniemi

19 M. Desalegen

32 E. Avdi

77 H. Assehnoun

93 T. Korkiakoski

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Makkonen

4 · I. Tiainen

8 · S. Rinta-Kahila

10 · J. Ruumensaari

13 · K. Lindstrom

17 · W. Cikala-Cimanga

20 · C. Nguyen

22 · R. Leskinen

26 · L. Kahisalo

Reipas

Formation not confirmed

8 A. Paalanen

12 E. Ndabawedje

13 V. Ratto

14 B. Kose

18 T. Saltykov

19 M. Verkko

20 E. Salmensuu

21 E. Kuparinen

22 P. Flood

25 K. Vaisanen

28 A. Babiker

Coach · Tommi Kautonen

Substitutes

3 · L. Kuusimaki

7 · V. Viitanen

11 · Y. Belhout

15 · H. Ayri

16 · M. Toukonen

17 · L. Jarvinen

31 · O. Selin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PuiU Helsinki

Formation not confirmed

2 I. Abdirashid

5 H. Mohamed

6 J. Sapienza

9 S. Nuorala

14 A. Oris

16 M. Rearte

18 T. Honkaniemi

19 M. Desalegen

32 E. Avdi

77 H. Assehnoun

93 T. Korkiakoski

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Makkonen

4 · I. Tiainen

8 · S. Rinta-Kahila

10 · J. Ruumensaari

13 · K. Lindstrom

17 · W. Cikala-Cimanga

20 · C. Nguyen

22 · R. Leskinen

26 · L. Kahisalo

Reipas

Formation not confirmed

8 A. Paalanen

12 E. Ndabawedje

13 V. Ratto

14 B. Kose

18 T. Saltykov

19 M. Verkko

20 E. Salmensuu

21 E. Kuparinen

22 P. Flood

25 K. Vaisanen

28 A. Babiker

Coach · Tommi Kautonen

Substitutes

3 · L. Kuusimaki

7 · V. Viitanen

11 · Y. Belhout

15 · H. Ayri

16 · M. Toukonen

17 · L. Jarvinen

31 · O. Selin

Our number · puiu helsinki winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

41% The market53%

Us41%

~~Market~~53%

We make PuiU Helsinki a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · puiu helsinki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PuiU Helsinki win	41%	53%	−12
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Reipas win	36%	25%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	68%	69%	0
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	49%	−1
PuiU Helsinki or draw	64%	75%	−11
PuiU Helsinki clean sheet	19%	–	–
Reipas clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 4.8 4.3 2.4 1 5.1 9.3 7.6 4.3 2 4.9 8.1 6.8 3.9 3 3.0 5.0 4.2 2.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PuiU Helsinki down, Reipas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Kakkonen - Lohko A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Kakkonen - Lohko A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.3% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PuiU Helsinki at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Reipas away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for PuiU Helsinki, 1.71 for Reipas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~REI 0–0 PUI · PUI 4–1 REI · REI 3–1 PUI · REI 0–1 PUI

Form · last six in Kakkonen - Lohko A

PUIU HELSINKI

LLDWDW1–2 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 2–0

REIPAS

LLDLWW0–1 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 7–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kiffen	23	+18	51
2	PEPO	23	+13	43
3	Atlantis	23	+20	39
4	HIFK Helsinki	23	+9	34
5	Reipas	23	+5	30
6	PPJ	23	+2	30
7	HPS	23	−8	27
8	PuiU Helsinki	23	−9	24
9	Union Plaani	23	−23	24
10	MyPa	23	−27	18