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Vaprus v Trans Narva

Vaprus

2–2Full time

Trans Narva

Meistriliiga · SAT 10 OCT · Parnu Rannastaadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Vaprus 2–2 Trans Narva VAPRUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vaprus win~~53%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.959

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vaprus win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vaprus was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
1′KICK-OFF Vaprus v Trans Narva
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Vaprus 0–1 Trans Narva
18′⚽ GOAL · 19' Vaprus 0–1 Trans Narva
20′N. Baljabkin scores for Trans Narva on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–25–51
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Vaprus win: 53% at kick-off, 24% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Trans Narva win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Vaprus win 24%)
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Vaprus 0–2 Trans Narva
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Vaprus
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Vaprus 1–2 Trans Narva · N. Baljabkin
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Vaprus 1–2 Trans Narva
40′Vaprus ahead on 39′ through S. Kapper. 1–2. 1–2 · 17–26–57
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Vaprus win: 53% at kick-off, 17% now
45′We said Vaprus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–2 · 15–27–58
45′SECOND HALF Vaprus 1–2 Trans Narva
46′HALF-TIME Vaprus 1–2 Trans Narva
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Trans Narva
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Vaprus 2–2 Trans Narva · S. Kapper
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Vaprus 2–2 Trans Narva
65′S. Kapper scores for Vaprus on 65′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 31–52–18
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Vaprus win: 53% at kick-off, 31% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Trans Narva win 18%)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Trans Narva · On: E. Zuravljov · Off: G. Slein
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Trans Narva · On: A. Besigirskis · Off: N. Baljabkin
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vaprus · On: V. Vallik · Off: S. Viidas
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Trans Narva · On: J. Doke · Off: Y. Betancor
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Trans Narva · On: Elysee · Off: S. Agaptsev
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vaprus · On: R. Orm · Off: M. Villota
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vaprus · On: M. Villota · Off: U. Nomm
85′We said Vaprus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–86–5
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Vaprus win: 53% at kick-off, 9% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Trans Narva · On: D. Poliakov · Off: W. Awusi
92′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Vaprus
FTFULL TIME Vaprus 2–2 Trans Narva
FTVaprus 2–2 Trans Narva · Vaprus win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vaprus win53%

Draw22%

Trans Narva win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Parnu Rannastaadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vaprus

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Nomm

28 M. Lipp

66 U. Nomm

15 K. Aloe

90 J. Sild

8 T. Pajo

20 H. Valja

24 M. Villota

10 S. Viidas

17 S. Kapper

42 M. Limberg

Coach · Igor Prins

Substitutes

1 · H. Vainu

4 · M. Villota

5 · S. Aer

7 · V. Vallik

9 · J. Poder

11 · K. Kauber

14 · R. Orm

19 · A. Korre

26 · O. Vahemets

64 · J. Allas

74 · K. Kutsar

Trans Narva

Formation not confirmed

30 I. Venteo

4 A. Ivanyushin

14 A. Filatov

5 C. Campagna

3 T. Berardozzi

6 G. Slein

24 Y. Betancor

48 W. Awusi

47 N. Baljabkin

8 S. Agaptsev

10 A. Gero

Coach · David Campana

Substitutes

1 · M. Zahharov

9 · J. Doke

12 · Eriks Santos

17 · A. Skinjov

19 · Elysee

22 · E. Zuravljov

28 · K. Miranda da Silva

39 · D. Poliakov

66 · E. Petkus

88 · A. Besigirskis

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vaprus

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Nomm

28 M. Lipp

66 U. Nomm

15 K. Aloe

90 J. Sild

8 T. Pajo

20 H. Valja

24 M. Villota

10 S. Viidas

17 S. Kapper

42 M. Limberg

Coach · Igor Prins

Substitutes

1 · H. Vainu

4 · M. Villota

5 · S. Aer

7 · V. Vallik

9 · J. Poder

11 · K. Kauber

14 · R. Orm

19 · A. Korre

26 · O. Vahemets

64 · J. Allas

74 · K. Kutsar

Trans Narva

Formation not confirmed

30 I. Venteo

4 A. Ivanyushin

14 A. Filatov

5 C. Campagna

3 T. Berardozzi

6 G. Slein

24 Y. Betancor

48 W. Awusi

47 N. Baljabkin

8 S. Agaptsev

10 A. Gero

Coach · David Campana

Substitutes

1 · M. Zahharov

9 · J. Doke

12 · Eriks Santos

17 · A. Skinjov

19 · Elysee

22 · E. Zuravljov

28 · K. Miranda da Silva

39 · D. Poliakov

66 · E. Petkus

88 · A. Besigirskis

Our number · vaprus winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

53% The market37%

Us53%

~~Market~~37%

We make Vaprus a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vaprus win	53%	37%	+16
Draw	22%	27%	−5
Trans Narva win	25%	36%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Vaprus or draw	75%	64%	+12
Vaprus clean sheet	33%	–	–
Trans Narva clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.5%

0123450 5.0 7.0 3.5 1 10.5 10.1 6.0 2.3 2 8.6 9.5 5.3 2.0 3 5.2 5.6 3.2 4 2.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vaprus down, Trans Narva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,029 Meistriliiga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 2.77 goals a meeting; 11 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vaprus at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trans Narva away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Vaprus, 1.12 for Trans Narva. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.77

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 22

~~Both scored~~12 of 22

~~Last meetings~~TRA 3–1 VAP · VAP 2–0 TRA · TRA 2–1 VAP · TRA 1–1 VAP

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

VAPRUS

DWWLLL2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–3

TRANS NARVA

LLLDLD0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	+60	72
2	Flora Tallinn	29	+20	55
3	Paide	29	+12	51
4	Kalju Nomme	29	+25	50
5	Tammeka	29	−10	44
6	Laagri	29	−7	35
7	Vaprus	29	−18	34
8	Kuressaare	29	−18	29
9	Nõmme United	29	−21	28
10	Trans Narva	29	−43	19