Vaprus v Kuressaare prediction · Meistriliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VaprusDrawKuressaare

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vaprus 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vaprus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vaprus 47%, draw 23%, Kuressaare 30%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Vaprus v KuressaareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Vaprus win47%

Draw23%

Kuressaare win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueParnu Rannastaadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vaprus

Kuressaare

5Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 24 Oct · Meistriliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	−18	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vaprus winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

47% The market38%

Us47%

~~Market~~38%

We make Vaprus a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vaprus v Kuressaare~~1.56 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 35~~7 v 8

~~The market · Vaprus win~~38% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vaprus win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vaprus win	47%	38%	+9
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Kuressaare win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Vaprus or draw	70%	64%	+6
Vaprus clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kuressaare clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 5.9 8.7 4.5 1 11.3 10.8 6.8 2.7 2 8.0 9.0 5.2 2.0 3 4.2 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vaprus down, Kuressaare across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,047 Meistriliiga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vaprus at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kuressaare away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Vaprus, 1.16 for Kuressaare. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KUR 2–2 VAP · VAP 1–0 KUR · KUR 0–1 VAP · VAP 0–1 KUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 13 Sept

VAPRUS

LLDDLL0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–4

KURESSAARE

LDWWLL1–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	+65	81
2	Paide	33	+14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	−5	50
6	Laagri	33	0	47
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	−18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20