Trans Narva v Nõmme United prediction · Meistriliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Trans NarvaDrawNõmme United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trans Narva 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Trans Narva just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Trans Narva 41%, draw 21%, Nõmme United 38%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Trans Narva v Nõmme UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Trans Narva win41%

Draw21%

Nõmme United win38%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueNarva Kalev-Fama staadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trans Narva

Nõmme United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Meistriliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trans narva winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Trans Narva a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trans Narva v Nõmme United~~1.72 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 34~~10 v 9

~~The market · Trans Narva win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trans Narva win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trans Narva win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	21%	26%	−5
Nõmme United win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Trans Narva or draw	62%	62%	0
Trans Narva clean sheet	20%	–	–
Nõmme United clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.9 6.6 4.7 2.6 1 7.0 8.9 7.8 4.3 2 5.2 8.2 6.6 3.6 3 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trans Narva down, Nõmme United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,049 Meistriliiga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trans Narva at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nõmme United away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Trans Narva, 1.64 for Nõmme United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NOM 1–2 TRA · TRA 1–2 NOM · NOM 5–1 TRA · NOM 0–4 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 12 Sept

TRANS NARVA

LDDLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–5

NÕMME UNITED

LLLLWW2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	33	+66	84
2	Paide	33	+14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	−5	50
6	Laagri	34	−1	47
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	−18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20