Trans Narva v Kuressaare prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 16:31

Trans Narva 0–1 Kuressaare TRANS NARVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trans Narva win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.630

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trans Narva win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Trans Narva was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Trans Narva v Kuressaare
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Trans Narva win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Trans Narva 0–0 Kuressaare
46′SECOND HALF Trans Narva 0–0 Kuressaare
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Trans Narva win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Trans Narva
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–47–25
55′🟨 YELLOW · 52' T. Berardozzi · Trans Narva
56′We said Trans Narva at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Trans Narva · On: Y. Betancor · Off: N. Baljabkin
62′We said Trans Narva at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kuressaare · On: R. Talu · Off: A. Kivi
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Kuressaare
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kuressaare · On: G. Roivassepp · Off: R. Tarkmeel
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' S. Prunn · Kuressaare
71′We said Trans Narva at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Trans Narva win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Trans Narva · On: W. Awusi · Off: S. Agaptsev
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Trans Narva · On: A. Besigirskis · Off: M. Velijev
78′We said Trans Narva at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
83′We said Trans Narva at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Trans Narva win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
88′A goal for Kuressaare on 88′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Trans Narva 0–1 Kuressaare
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Kuressaare win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
89′We said Trans Narva at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′A. Svedovski scores for Kuressaare on 87′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Trans Narva · On: D. Poliakov · Off: E. Zuravljov
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Trans Narva
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Y. Betancor · Trans Narva
FTFULL TIME Trans Narva 0–1 Kuressaare
FTTrans Narva 0–1 Kuressaare · Trans Narva win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Trans Narva v KuressaareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

Trans Narva win39%

Draw25%

Kuressaare win36%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00

VenueNarva Kalev-Fama staadion

RefereeK. Kaivoja

Line-ups

Trans Narva

Kuressaare

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Trans Narva

Kuressaare

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kuressaare	30	-16	32
10	Trans Narva	30	-43	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Trans Narva

Formation not confirmed

30 I. Venteo

4 A. Ivanyushin

14 A. Filatov

12 Eriks Santos

3 T. Berardozzi

6 G. Slein

7 M. Velijev

22 E. Zuravljov

8 S. Agaptsev

47 N. Baljabkin

10 A. Gero

Coach · David Campana

Substitutes

1 · M. Zahharov

5 · C. Campagna

17 · A. Skinjov

19 · Elysee

24 · Y. Betancor

28 · K. Miranda da Silva

39 · D. Poliakov

48 · W. Awusi

58 · A. Solodov

66 · E. Petkus

88 · A. Besigirskis

Kuressaare

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Nomm

68 J. Vahermagi

36 R. Piil

21 M. Lukka

27 S. Prunn

10 A. Kivi

8 D. Andreas

9 A. Svedovski

28 R. Lukas

11 T. Jurisoo

80 R. Tarkmeel

Coach · Oskar Kalpus

Substitutes

22 · S. Ristna

3 · K. Leedo

5 · S. Sinilaid

7 · R. Talu

14 · J. Kobin

17 · G. Roivassepp

25 · J. Lonks

41 · M. Opp

58 · A. Medvedev

Our number · trans narva winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Trans Narva a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trans Narva v Kuressaare~~1.31 – 1.23

~~Last six in Meistriliiga~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 32~~10 v 8

~~The market · Trans Narva win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · trans narva win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trans Narva win	39%	46%	−7
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Kuressaare win	36%	27%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Trans Narva or draw	64%	73%	−8
Trans Narva clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kuressaare clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.3 10.7 6.0 2.5 1 11.3 11.6 7.6 3.2 2 6.8 8.1 4.9 2.0 3 3.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trans Narva down, Kuressaare across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,036 Meistriliiga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 2.45 goals a meeting; 11 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trans Narva at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kuressaare away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Trans Narva, 1.23 for Kuressaare. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.45

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 22

~~Both scored~~9 of 22

~~Last meetings~~KUR 3–1 TRA · KUR 0–0 TRA · TRA 1–2 KUR · KUR 0–0 TRA

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

TRANS NARVA

LLDLDD0–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

KURESSAARE

DWLLDW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	61	75
2	Flora Tallinn	30	18	55
3	Paide	30	11	51
4	Kalju Nomme	31	24	51
5	Tammeka	30	-6	47
6	Laagri	31	-4	41
7	Vaprus	31	-18	36
8	Kuressaare	30	-16	32
9	Nõmme United	31	-27	28
10	Trans Narva	30	-43	20