Tammeka v Trans Narva

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tammeka win at 53%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tammeka 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
3. 1′KICK-OFF Tammeka v Trans Narva
4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Tammeka
5. 21′A goal for Trans Narva on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–25–51
6. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Tammeka 0–1 Trans Narva
7. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Tammeka win: 53% at kick-off, 24% now
8. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Trans Narva win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Tammeka win 49%)
9. 22′We said Tammeka at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–51
10. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Tammeka win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 21–26–53
12. 34′We said Tammeka at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
13. 37′Tammeka score on 37′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–32–23
14. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Tammeka 1–1 Trans Narva
15. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Tammeka win: 53% at kick-off, 45% now
16. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Tammeka win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Trans Narva win 55%)
17. 39′36′: M. Sambe on the scoresheet for Tammeka, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 44–33–23
18. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Trans Narva
19. 45′HALF-TIME Tammeka 1–1 Trans Narva
20. 45′SECOND HALF Tammeka 1–1 Trans Narva
21. 46′We said Tammeka at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–37–22
22. 50′Tammeka find the net on 49′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
23. 50′We said Tammeka at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–17–5
24. 50′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–17–5
25. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tammeka 2–1 Trans Narva
26. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Tammeka win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
27. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Trans Narva
28. 56′We said Tammeka at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
29. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Tammeka win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
30. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Trans Narva
31. 71′We said Tammeka at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
32. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Tammeka
33. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Tammeka
34. 81′We said Tammeka at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–1
35. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Tammeka win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
36. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Trans Narva
37. 87′Tammeka are down to ten from 86′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 95–5–0
38. 87′We said Tammeka at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
39. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Tammeka
40. 88′We said Tammeka at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
41. 88′A goal for Tammeka on 88′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
42. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Tammeka 3–1 Trans Narva
43. 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
44. 90′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
45. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Tammeka 4–1 Trans Narva
46. 91′Tammeka score on 90′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
47. 98′Tammeka find the net on 90′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
48. 98′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
49. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Tammeka 5–1 Trans Narva
50. FTFULL TIME Tammeka 5–1 Trans Narva
51. FTTammeka 5–1 Trans Narva · Tammeka win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.