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Tammeka v Nõmme United

Tammeka

4–0Full time

Nõmme United

Meistriliiga · SAT 10 OCT · Tamme Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Tammeka 4–0 Nõmme United TAMMEKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tammeka win~~52%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tammeka win at 52%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Tammeka 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–28
3′KICK-OFF Tammeka v Nõmme United
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Tammeka 1–0 Nõmme United
25′20′ and it is 1–0: G. Uggeri on the scoresheet for Tammeka. 1–0 · 73–17–10
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Tammeka win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Tammeka 2–0 Nõmme United
45′SECOND HALF Tammeka 2–0 Nõmme United
46′Tammeka ahead on 35′ through P. Veelma. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
46′HALF-TIME Tammeka 2–0 Nõmme United
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Tammeka win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nõmme United · On: N. Vassiljev · Off: A. Torres
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nõmme United · On: T. Evans · Off: K. Laanelaid
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Tammeka
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Nõmme United
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tammeka · On: L. Ounpuu · Off: H. Pedmanson
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Tammeka 3–0 Nõmme United · P. Veelma
68′⚽ GOAL · 70' Tammeka 3–0 Nõmme United
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Tammeka
76′🟨 YELLOW · 72' L. Ounpuu · Tammeka
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Tammeka
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Tammeka
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tammeka 4–0 Nõmme United · M. Hydara
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tammeka 4–0 Nõmme United
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tammeka 4–0 Nõmme United · Thomas Lisboa
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tammeka · On: M. Vaino · Off: Thomas Lisboa
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tammeka · On: R. Muur · Off: M. Sambe
FTFULL TIME Tammeka 4–0 Nõmme United
FTTammeka 4–0 Nõmme United · Tammeka win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tammeka win52%

Draw20%

Nõmme United win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Tamme Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tammeka

Formation not confirmed

26 K. Lapa

3 Pedro Manoel

17 J. Amijekori

22 T. Lang

7 Thomas Lisboa

23 P. Veelma

99 M. Hydara

79 P. Marin

24 H. Pedmanson

10 G. Uggeri

9 M. Sambe

Coach · Karel Voolaid

Substitutes

4 · M. Vaino

8 · K. Kiidron

11 · R. Muur

12 · K. Sahtel

13 · R. Laabus

27 · L. Ounpuu

29 · R. Silov

89 · Kauan Pereira

Nõmme United

Formation not confirmed

71 G. Purg

4 A. Alteberg

50 S. Geiger

6 M. Palts

45 H. Jarvelaid

10 A. Frolov

7 A. Torres

23 K. Laanelaid

49 Z. Beglarishvili

19 I. Krasnov

20 K. Matas

Coach · Eric Wynalda

Substitutes

1 · P. Polda

9 · E. Ounapuu

14 · N. Vassiljev

15 · T. Evans

26 · K. Oostenbrink

27 · M. Miil

55 · R. Chanda

91 · G. Lagus

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tammeka

Formation not confirmed

26 K. Lapa

3 Pedro Manoel

17 J. Amijekori

22 T. Lang

7 Thomas Lisboa

23 P. Veelma

99 M. Hydara

79 P. Marin

24 H. Pedmanson

10 G. Uggeri

9 M. Sambe

Coach · Karel Voolaid

Substitutes

4 · M. Vaino

8 · K. Kiidron

11 · R. Muur

12 · K. Sahtel

13 · R. Laabus

27 · L. Ounpuu

29 · R. Silov

89 · Kauan Pereira

Nõmme United

Formation not confirmed

71 G. Purg

4 A. Alteberg

50 S. Geiger

6 M. Palts

45 H. Jarvelaid

10 A. Frolov

7 A. Torres

23 K. Laanelaid

49 Z. Beglarishvili

19 I. Krasnov

20 K. Matas

Coach · Eric Wynalda

Substitutes

1 · P. Polda

9 · E. Ounapuu

14 · N. Vassiljev

15 · T. Evans

26 · K. Oostenbrink

27 · M. Miil

55 · R. Chanda

91 · G. Lagus

Our number · tammeka winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

52% The market50%

Us52%

~~Market~~50%

We make Tammeka a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tammeka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tammeka win	52%	50%	+2
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Nõmme United win	29%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Both teams to score	67%	69%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Tammeka or draw	71%	73%	−1
Tammeka clean sheet	23%	–	–
Nõmme United clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.4 4.9 3.2 1 6.5 8.1 6.4 3.2 2 6.0 8.8 6.5 3.3 3 4.2 6.1 4.5 2.3 4 2.2 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tammeka down, Nõmme United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,029 Meistriliiga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tammeka at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nõmme United away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Tammeka, 1.50 for Nõmme United. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NOM 0–1 TAM · TAM 3–1 NOM · NOM 2–3 TAM · NOM 1–2 TAM

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

TAMMEKA

LWLWLL2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–6 · 1–3

NÕMME UNITED

LLLWLL1–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	+60	72
2	Flora Tallinn	29	+20	55
3	Paide	29	+12	51
4	Kalju Nomme	29	+25	50
5	Tammeka	29	−10	44
6	Laagri	29	−7	35
7	Vaprus	29	−18	34
8	Kuressaare	29	−18	29
9	Nõmme United	29	−21	28
10	Trans Narva	29	−43	19