Paide v Trans Narva

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Paide win at 70%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Paide 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
3. 1′KICK-OFF Paide v Trans Narva
4. 17′We said Paide at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Paide 1–0 Trans Narva
6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
7. 18′Paide score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
8. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Paide
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
10. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Trans Narva
11. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 38' M. Velijev · Trans Narva
12. 45′SECOND HALF Paide 1–0 Trans Narva
13. 46′We said Paide at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–34–13
14. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Paide 1–1 Trans Narva
15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 53% now
16. 47′Trans Narva find the net on 47′. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–35–13
17. 47′HALF-TIME Paide 1–0 Trans Narva
18. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paide · On: M. Jobarteh · Off: J. Palacios
19. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
20. 52′We said Paide at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–38–13
21. 59′We said Paide at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–44–12
22. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Paide win 42%)
23. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
24. 65′We said Paide at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–50–11
25. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Paide
26. 70′We said Paide at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–56–10
27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Paide · On: S. Luts · Off: D. Darboe
28. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
29. 74′We said Paide at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–62–9
30. 76′We said Paide at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Trans Narva · On: G. Slein · Off: N. Baljabkin
32. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Paide 2–1 Trans Narva
33. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 92% now
34. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Paide win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
35. 77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 77' Paide
36. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 25% now
37. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Paide win 25%)
38. 78′A goal for Paide on 78′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 93–7–0
39. 78′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
40. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Paide 2–1 Trans Narva
41. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Paide win: 70% at kick-off, 93% now
42. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Paide win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
43. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Trans Narva · On: A. Ivanyushin · Off: M. Velijev
44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Trans Narva · On: Y. Betancor · Off: A. Gero
45. 82′We said Paide at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Paide · On: A. Surogin · Off: R. Smirnov
47. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Trans Narva · On: A. Besigirskis · Off: S. Agaptsev
48. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Trans Narva · On: K. Miranda da Silva · Off: E. Zuravljov
49. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Paide · On: P. A. Cham · Off: Daniel Cabral
50. 94′2–1 at the end. Our 70% on Paide comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
51. FTFULL TIME Paide 2–1 Trans Narva
52. FTPaide 2–1 Trans Narva · Paide win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.