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Paide v Tammeka

Paide
2–1Full time
Tammeka

Meistriliiga · WED 14 OCT · Paide linnastaadion

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45
Paide 2–1 Tammeka PAIDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Paide win64%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.195
The market’s Brier score0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 55 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Paide win at 64%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Paide v Tammeka
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Paide 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
  4. 7′7′ and it is 0–1: Tammeka have scored. 0–1 · 37–25–38
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Paide 0–1 Tammeka
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 37% now
  7. 8′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–1 · 37–25–38
  8. 9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Tammeka
  9. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
  10. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  11. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tammeka
  12. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Tammeka
  13. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Paide 0–1 Tammeka
  14. 38′39′ and it is 0–0: Tammeka have scored. 0–0 · 52–31–17
  15. 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Tammeka
  16. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' M. Sambe · Tammeka
  17. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Pedmanson · Tammeka
  18. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' M. Sambe · Tammeka
  19. 39′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–31–17
  20. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tammeka
  21. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Tammeka
  22. 40′42′ and it is 1–0: Paide have scored. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  23. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Paide 1–0 Tammeka
  24. 40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Paide
  25. 40′⚽ GOAL · 42' Paide 1–0 Tammeka
  26. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
  27. 42′We said Paide at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  28. 43′Tammeka find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–33–17
  29. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Paide 1–1 Tammeka
  30. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 50% now
  31. 45′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–34–17
  32. 46′HALF-TIME Paide 1–1 Tammeka
  33. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Pedmanson · Tammeka
  34. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 37' M. Sambe · Tammeka
  35. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tammeka · On: L. Ounpuu · Off: H. Pedmanson
  36. 56′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–41–16
  37. 56′SECOND HALF Paide 1–1 Tammeka
  38. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 43% now
  39. 57′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 42–42–15
  40. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Paide win 40%)
  41. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: D. Darboe
  42. 67′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–52–13
  43. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  44. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Pedmanson · Tammeka
  45. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 37' M. Sambe · Tammeka
  46. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tammeka · On: L. Ounpuu · Off: H. Pedmanson
  47. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: D. Darboe
  48. 72′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–59–12
  49. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Paide
  50. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' D. Luts · Paide
  51. 76′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–65–10
  52. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
  53. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paide · On: P. A. Cham · Off: Daniel Cabral
  54. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paide · On: S. Luts · Off: D. Luts
  55. 80′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–73–8
  56. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Paide
  57. 83′Tammeka are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 14–80–6
  58. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Paide
  59. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Tammeka
  60. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Tammeka
  61. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
  62. 84′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–82–5
  63. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' J. Palacios · Paide
  64. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' M. Sambe · Tammeka
  65. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' M. Sambe · Tammeka
  66. 87′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–4
  67. 92′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  68. 92′We said Paide at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  69. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
  70. 92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Paide 2–1 Tammeka · D. Darboe
  71. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tammeka · On: R. Muur · Off: R. Silov
  72. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Paide · On: A. Surogin · Off: M. Miller
  73. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
  74. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Paide win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  75. 94′A goal for Paide on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  76. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Paide
  77. FTFULL TIME Paide 2–1 Tammeka
  78. FTPaide 2–1 Tammeka · Paide win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Paide v TammekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Paide win64%
Draw19%
Tammeka win17%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenuePaide linnastaadion

RefereeK. Tohver

Line-ups

Paide

Tammeka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Paide

Tammeka

3Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Paide301151
5Tammeka30-647

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Paide

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Meerits

2 M. Lilander

27 N. Baranov

3 Victor Hugo

4 Andrade

28 O. Hoim

6 Daniel Cabral

23 J. Palacios

10 M. Miller

77 D. Luts

29 D. Darboe

Coach · Tarmo Kink

Substitutes

16 · A. Surogin

17 · P. A. Cham

19 · S. Luts

20 · K. Piht

21 · R. Smirnov

37 · K. Kanne

56 · M. Sapp

63 · K. Reivik

Tammeka

Formation not confirmed

26 K. Lapa

23 P. Veelma

44 O. Kangaslahti

17 J. Amijekori

3 Pedro Manoel

24 H. Pedmanson

7 Thomas Lisboa

99 M. Hydara

10 G. Uggeri

9 M. Sambe

29 R. Silov

Coach · Karel Voolaid

Substitutes

4 · M. Vaino

8 · K. Kiidron

11 · R. Muur

13 · R. Laabus

27 · L. Ounpuu

77 · C. Kiidjarv

89 · Kauan Pereira

Our number · paide winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
64% The market57%
Us64%
Market57%

We make Paide a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Paide v Tammeka2.09 – 0.95
Last six in MeistriliigaW3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 51 v 473 v 5
The market · Paide win57% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 9 OCT 06:1814 OCT 15:39
Our probability · paide win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Paide win64%57%+7
Draw19%22%−3
Tammeka win17%20%−3
Over 2.5 goals58%65%−7
Both teams to score52%63%−10
Over 1.5 goals79%83%−4
Over 3.5 goals36%46%−10
Paide or draw83%80%+3
Paide clean sheet39%––
Tammeka clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.8%
0123450 4.4 5.4 2.2 1 10.8 8.7 4.5 2 10.4 9.6 4.6 3 7.2 6.7 3.2 4 3.8 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Paide down, Tammeka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.82
Over 2.510 of 22
Both scored9 of 22
Last meetingsTAM 0–2 PAI · PAI 0–1 TAM · TAM 1–4 PAI · PAI 5–0 TAM

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

PAIDE

LWLWWL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

TAMMEKA

WLWLLW2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–6 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Levadia Tallinn306175
2Flora Tallinn301855
3Paide301151
4Kalju Nomme312451
5Tammeka30-647
6Laagri31-441
7Vaprus31-1836
8Kuressaare31-1535
9Nõmme United31-2728
10Trans Narva31-4420

The competition's standings.