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Paide v Tammeka
Paide
TammekaMeistriliiga · WED 14 OCT · Paide linnastaadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Paide win at 64%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Paide v Tammeka
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Paide 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
- 7′7′ and it is 0–1: Tammeka have scored. 0–1 · 37–25–38
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Paide 0–1 Tammeka
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 37% now
- 8′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–1 · 37–25–38
- 9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Tammeka
- 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tammeka
- 36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Tammeka
- 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Paide 0–1 Tammeka
- 38′39′ and it is 0–0: Tammeka have scored. 0–0 · 52–31–17
- 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Tammeka
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' M. Sambe · Tammeka
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Pedmanson · Tammeka
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' M. Sambe · Tammeka
- 39′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–31–17
- 39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tammeka
- 39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Tammeka
- 40′42′ and it is 1–0: Paide have scored. 1–0 · 83–13–4
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Paide 1–0 Tammeka
- 40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Paide
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 42' Paide 1–0 Tammeka
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
- 42′We said Paide at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
- 43′Tammeka find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–33–17
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Paide 1–1 Tammeka
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 50% now
- 45′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–34–17
- 46′HALF-TIME Paide 1–1 Tammeka
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Pedmanson · Tammeka
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 37' M. Sambe · Tammeka
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tammeka · On: L. Ounpuu · Off: H. Pedmanson
- 56′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–41–16
- 56′SECOND HALF Paide 1–1 Tammeka
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 43% now
- 57′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 42–42–15
- 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Paide win 40%)
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: D. Darboe
- 67′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–52–13
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Pedmanson · Tammeka
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 37' M. Sambe · Tammeka
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tammeka · On: L. Ounpuu · Off: H. Pedmanson
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: D. Darboe
- 72′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–59–12
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Paide
- 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' D. Luts · Paide
- 76′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–65–10
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paide · On: P. A. Cham · Off: Daniel Cabral
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paide · On: S. Luts · Off: D. Luts
- 80′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–73–8
- 82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Paide
- 83′Tammeka are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 14–80–6
- 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Paide
- 83′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Tammeka
- 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Tammeka
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
- 84′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–82–5
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' J. Palacios · Paide
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' M. Sambe · Tammeka
- 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' M. Sambe · Tammeka
- 87′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–4
- 92′We said Paide at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
- 92′We said Paide at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
- 92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Paide 2–1 Tammeka · D. Darboe
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tammeka · On: R. Muur · Off: R. Silov
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Paide · On: A. Surogin · Off: M. Miller
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Paide win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Paide win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
- 94′A goal for Paide on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Paide
- FTFULL TIME Paide 2–1 Tammeka
- FTPaide 2–1 Tammeka · Paide win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
Paide win64%
Tammeka win17%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00
VenuePaide linnastaadion
RefereeK. Tohver
Match timeline
All events
PaideMIN
TammekaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Paide
Tammeka
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Paide
Tammeka
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
Line-ups
Paide
Formation not confirmed
12 M. Meerits
2 M. Lilander
27 N. Baranov
3 Victor Hugo
4 Andrade
28 O. Hoim
6 Daniel Cabral
23 J. Palacios
10 M. Miller
77 D. Luts
29 D. Darboe
Coach · Tarmo Kink
Substitutes
16 · A. Surogin
17 · P. A. Cham
19 · S. Luts
20 · K. Piht
21 · R. Smirnov
37 · K. Kanne
56 · M. Sapp
63 · K. Reivik
Tammeka
Formation not confirmed
26 K. Lapa
23 P. Veelma
44 O. Kangaslahti
17 J. Amijekori
3 Pedro Manoel
24 H. Pedmanson
7 Thomas Lisboa
99 M. Hydara
10 G. Uggeri
9 M. Sambe
29 R. Silov
Coach · Karel Voolaid
Substitutes
4 · M. Vaino
8 · K. Kiidron
11 · R. Muur
13 · R. Laabus
27 · L. Ounpuu
77 · C. Kiidjarv
89 · Kauan Pereira
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Paide
Formation not confirmed
12 M. Meerits
2 M. Lilander
27 N. Baranov
3 Victor Hugo
4 Andrade
28 O. Hoim
6 Daniel Cabral
23 J. Palacios
10 M. Miller
77 D. Luts
29 D. Darboe
Coach · Tarmo Kink
Substitutes
16 · A. Surogin
17 · P. A. Cham
19 · S. Luts
20 · K. Piht
21 · R. Smirnov
37 · K. Kanne
56 · M. Sapp
63 · K. Reivik
Tammeka
Formation not confirmed
26 K. Lapa
23 P. Veelma
44 O. Kangaslahti
17 J. Amijekori
3 Pedro Manoel
24 H. Pedmanson
7 Thomas Lisboa
99 M. Hydara
10 G. Uggeri
9 M. Sambe
29 R. Silov
Coach · Karel Voolaid
Substitutes
4 · M. Vaino
8 · K. Kiidron
11 · R. Muur
13 · R. Laabus
27 · L. Ounpuu
77 · C. Kiidjarv
89 · Kauan Pereira
We make Paide a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 65%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paide win | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Tammeka win | 17% | 20% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 63% | −10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 83% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 46% | −10 |
| Paide or draw | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Paide clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Tammeka clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
22 meetings since 2021Form · last six in Meistriliiga
PAIDE
TAMMEKA
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 30 | 61 | 75 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 30 | 18 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 30 | 11 | 51 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 31 | 24 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 30 | -6 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 31 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 31 | -18 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 31 | -15 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 31 | -27 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 31 | -44 | 20 |
The competition's standings.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
Trans Narva