Paide v Kalju Nomme prediction · Meistriliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PaideDrawKalju Nomme

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Paide 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paide are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paide 44%, draw 24%, Kalju Nomme 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Paide v Kalju NommeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Paide win44%

Draw24%

Kalju Nomme win31%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenuePaide linnastaadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paide

Kalju Nomme

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 17 Oct · Meistriliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Paide	33	+14	60
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paide winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Paide a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paide v Kalju Nomme~~1.41 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 8 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 60 v 51~~2 v 4

~~The market · Paide win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paide win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paide win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Kalju Nomme win	31%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	60%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Paide or draw	69%	66%	+3
Paide clean sheet	33%	–	–
Kalju Nomme clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 10.0 5.1 1 12.2 11.4 6.9 2.6 2 7.8 8.6 4.8 3 3.7 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paide down, Kalju Nomme across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,047 Meistriliiga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paide at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kalju Nomme away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Paide, 1.13 for Kalju Nomme. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAL 1–1 PAI · KAL 1–1 PAI · PAI 1–0 KAL · KAL 1–1 PAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 8 Sept

PAIDE

WWLWWW2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

KALJU NOMME

LWWLDL1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	+65	81
2	Paide	33	+14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	−5	50
6	Laagri	33	0	47
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	−18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20