Nõmme United v Vaprus

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vaprus win at 40%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vaprus was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 39–21–40
3. 1′KICK-OFF Nõmme United v Vaprus
4. 6′We published Vaprus at 40%. Our model now makes it 61%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Nõmme United 0–1 Vaprus
6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, 61% now
7. 8′Vaprus find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–20–61
8. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Vaprus
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 15–21–64
10. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Nõmme United 1–1 Vaprus
11. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
12. 34′A goal for Nõmme United on 33′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–29–36
13. 46′SECOND HALF Nõmme United 1–1 Vaprus
14. 48′HALF-TIME Nõmme United 1–1 Vaprus
15. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nõmme United · On: A. Alteberg · Off: R. Chanda
16. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Vaprus win 34%)
17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
18. 58′We said Vaprus at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–1 · 70–22–8
19. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Nõmme United 2–1 Vaprus
20. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
21. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Nõmme United win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 41%)
22. 61′Nõmme United score on 60′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–7
23. 62′59′: S. Geiger on the scoresheet for Nõmme United, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–7
24. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Nõmme United
25. 67′We said Vaprus at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 2–2 · 25–50–25
26. 67′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 25–50–25
27. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Nõmme United 2–2 Vaprus
28. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, 25% now
29. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nõmme United win 75%)
30. 68′Vaprus find the net on 68′. 2–2. 2–2 · 24–51–25
31. 68′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 75–20–5
32. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Nõmme United 3–2 Vaprus
33. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
34. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Nõmme United win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 51%)
35. 69′A goal for Nõmme United on 69′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 76–20–5
36. 70′We said Vaprus at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–2 · 77–19–4
37. 71′6 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 96–3–0
38. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Nõmme United 4–2 Vaprus
39. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Vaprus win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
40. 72′68′: E. Ounapuu on the scoresheet for Nõmme United. 4–2 · 96–3–0
41. 73′Nõmme United score on 72′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 97–3–0
42. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Vaprus
43. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Nõmme United
44. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Vaprus
45. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Nõmme United
46. 93′Full time, 4–2. We called Vaprus at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 4–2 · 100–0–0
47. FTFULL TIME Nõmme United 4–2 Vaprus
48. FTNõmme United 4–2 Vaprus · Vaprus win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.