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Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme

Nõmme United
3–0Full time
Kalju Nomme

Meistriliiga · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:16
Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme KALJU NOMME WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kalju Nomme win64%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.106
The market’s Brier score0.977

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kalju Nomme win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Kalju Nomme was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 18–18–64
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme
  4. 24′Nõmme United score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 42–26–32
  5. 24′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 42–26–32
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Nõmme United 1–0 Kalju Nomme
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Kalju Nomme win: 64% at kick-off, 32% now
  8. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Nõmme United win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Kalju Nomme win 32%)
  9. 30′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 44–27–29
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 44–27–29
  11. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kalju Nomme
  12. 37′Nõmme United find the net on 37′. 2–0. 2–0 · 74–16–10
  13. 37′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 2–0 · 74–16–10
  14. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Nõmme United 2–0 Kalju Nomme
  15. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Kalju Nomme win: 64% at kick-off, 10% now
  16. 39′A goal for Nõmme United on 38′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 91–6–3
  17. 39′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–0 · 91–6–3
  18. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
  19. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Kalju Nomme win: 64% at kick-off, 3% now
  20. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Nõmme United
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
  23. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kalju Nomme · On: E. E. Lotar Eyang · Off: T. Baptista
  24. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kalju Nomme · On: I. Jabir · Off: M. Mannilaan
  25. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nõmme United · On: K. Oostenbrink · Off: N. Vassiljev
  26. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Nõmme United
  27. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Kalju Nomme
  28. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kalju Nomme · On: A. Nikolajev · Off: N. Ivanov
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kalju Nomme · On: F. Jekimov · Off: A. Borolinstsikov
  30. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kalju Nomme · On: J. Lillemets · Off: O. Musolitin
  31. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nõmme United · On: T. Evans · Off: H. Jarvelaid
  32. 87′A red card for Nõmme United on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Nõmme United
  34. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Nõmme United · On: M. Marmei · Off: Z. Beglarishvili
  35. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Nõmme United
  36. FTFULL TIME Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
  37. FTNõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme · Kalju Nomme win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kalju Nomme are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nõmme United 18%, draw 18%, Kalju Nomme 64%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Nõmme United v Kalju NommeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nõmme United win18%
Draw18%
Kalju Nomme win64%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 32

RefereeJ. Jaanovits

Line-ups

Nõmme United

Kalju Nomme

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nõmme United

Kalju Nomme

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 13 Oct · Meistriliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Kalju Nomme31+2451
9Nõmme United31−2728

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nõmme United

Formation not confirmed

71 G. Purg

55 R. Chanda

50 S. Geiger

6 M. Palts

23 K. Laanelaid

10 A. Frolov

14 N. Vassiljev

7 A. Torres

45 H. Jarvelaid

49 Z. Beglarishvili

19 I. Krasnov

Coach · Eric Wynalda

Substitutes

1 · G. Lagus

4 · A. Alteberg

9 · E. Ounapuu

12 · M. Marmei

15 · T. Evans

20 · K. Matas

26 · K. Oostenbrink

27 · M. Miil

91 · O. Kais

Kalju Nomme

Formation not confirmed

69 M. Pavlov

78 D. Mashchenko

46 R. Vukusic

20 M. Tambedou

4 A. Borolinstsikov

8 O. Musolitin

26 R. Siht

10 N. Ivanov

21 T. Baptista

11 M. Orlov

27 M. Mannilaan

Coach · Nikita Andreev

Substitutes

1 · H. Perk

2 · J. Lillemets

14 · J. Pihkva

17 · E. E. Lotar Eyang

22 · A. Nikolajev

30 · I. Jabir

74 · F. Jekimov

Our number · kalju nomme winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
64% The market56%
Us64%
Market56%

We make Kalju Nomme a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme1.09 – 2.26
Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 28 v 519 v 4
The market · Kalju Nomme win56% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 10:10
Our probability · Kalju Nomme win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nõmme United win18%22%−4
Draw18%23%−5
Kalju Nomme win64%56%+8
Over 2.5 goals64%65%−1
Both teams to score58%63%−5
Over 1.5 goals83%84%−1
Over 3.5 goals43%46%−3
Nõmme United or draw36%44%−8
Nõmme United clean sheet11%––
Kalju Nomme clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.4%
0123450 3.0 8.8 8.9 6.7 3.8 1 4.7 7.9 9.4 7.0 4.0 2 2.2 4.7 5.2 3.8 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Nõmme United down, Kalju Nomme across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.43
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsKAL 1–2 NOM · NOM 1–3 KAL · KAL 7–1 NOM · KAL 3–0 NOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 Sept

NÕMME UNITED

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2

KALJU NOMME

LLWWLD1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Levadia Tallinn31+6378
2Flora Tallinn31+1655
3Paide31+1254
4Kalju Nomme31+2451
5Tammeka31−747
6Laagri31−441
7Vaprus31−1836
8Kuressaare31−1535
9Nõmme United31−2728
10Trans Narva31−4420

The competition's standings before kick-off.