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Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
Kalju NommeMeistriliiga · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Kalju Nomme win at 64%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Kalju Nomme was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 18–18–64
- 1′KICK-OFF Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme
- 24′Nõmme United score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 42–26–32
- 24′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 42–26–32
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Nõmme United 1–0 Kalju Nomme
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Kalju Nomme win: 64% at kick-off, 32% now
- 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Nõmme United win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Kalju Nomme win 32%)
- 30′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 44–27–29
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 44–27–29
- 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kalju Nomme
- 37′Nõmme United find the net on 37′. 2–0. 2–0 · 74–16–10
- 37′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 2–0 · 74–16–10
- 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Nõmme United 2–0 Kalju Nomme
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Kalju Nomme win: 64% at kick-off, 10% now
- 39′A goal for Nõmme United on 38′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 91–6–3
- 39′We said Kalju Nomme at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–0 · 91–6–3
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Kalju Nomme win: 64% at kick-off, 3% now
- 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Nõmme United
- 45′HALF-TIME Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
- 46′SECOND HALF Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kalju Nomme · On: E. E. Lotar Eyang · Off: T. Baptista
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kalju Nomme · On: I. Jabir · Off: M. Mannilaan
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nõmme United · On: K. Oostenbrink · Off: N. Vassiljev
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Nõmme United
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Kalju Nomme
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kalju Nomme · On: A. Nikolajev · Off: N. Ivanov
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kalju Nomme · On: F. Jekimov · Off: A. Borolinstsikov
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kalju Nomme · On: J. Lillemets · Off: O. Musolitin
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nõmme United · On: T. Evans · Off: H. Jarvelaid
- 87′A red card for Nõmme United on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Nõmme United
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Nõmme United · On: M. Marmei · Off: Z. Beglarishvili
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Nõmme United
- FTFULL TIME Nõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme
- FTNõmme United 3–0 Kalju Nomme · Kalju Nomme win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassKalju Nomme are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nõmme United 18%, draw 18%, Kalju Nomme 64%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Nõmme United win18%
Kalju Nomme win64%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:30
RoundMatchday 32
RefereeJ. Jaanovits
Match timeline
All events
Nõmme UnitedMIN
Kalju NommeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
Last match: 13 Oct · Meistriliiga
Last match: 13 Oct · Meistriliiga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Nõmme United
Formation not confirmed
71 G. Purg
55 R. Chanda
50 S. Geiger
6 M. Palts
23 K. Laanelaid
10 A. Frolov
14 N. Vassiljev
7 A. Torres
45 H. Jarvelaid
49 Z. Beglarishvili
19 I. Krasnov
Coach · Eric Wynalda
Substitutes
1 · G. Lagus
4 · A. Alteberg
9 · E. Ounapuu
12 · M. Marmei
15 · T. Evans
20 · K. Matas
26 · K. Oostenbrink
27 · M. Miil
91 · O. Kais
Kalju Nomme
Formation not confirmed
69 M. Pavlov
78 D. Mashchenko
46 R. Vukusic
20 M. Tambedou
4 A. Borolinstsikov
8 O. Musolitin
26 R. Siht
10 N. Ivanov
21 T. Baptista
11 M. Orlov
27 M. Mannilaan
Coach · Nikita Andreev
Substitutes
1 · H. Perk
2 · J. Lillemets
14 · J. Pihkva
17 · E. E. Lotar Eyang
22 · A. Nikolajev
30 · I. Jabir
74 · F. Jekimov
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Nõmme United
Formation not confirmed
71 G. Purg
55 R. Chanda
50 S. Geiger
6 M. Palts
23 K. Laanelaid
10 A. Frolov
14 N. Vassiljev
7 A. Torres
45 H. Jarvelaid
49 Z. Beglarishvili
19 I. Krasnov
Coach · Eric Wynalda
Substitutes
1 · G. Lagus
4 · A. Alteberg
9 · E. Ounapuu
12 · M. Marmei
15 · T. Evans
20 · K. Matas
26 · K. Oostenbrink
27 · M. Miil
91 · O. Kais
Kalju Nomme
Formation not confirmed
69 M. Pavlov
78 D. Mashchenko
46 R. Vukusic
20 M. Tambedou
4 A. Borolinstsikov
8 O. Musolitin
26 R. Siht
10 N. Ivanov
21 T. Baptista
11 M. Orlov
27 M. Mannilaan
Coach · Nikita Andreev
Substitutes
1 · H. Perk
2 · J. Lillemets
14 · J. Pihkva
17 · E. E. Lotar Eyang
22 · A. Nikolajev
30 · I. Jabir
74 · F. Jekimov
We make Kalju Nomme a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United win | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Draw | 18% | 23% | −5 |
| Kalju Nomme win | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Nõmme United or draw | 36% | 44% | −8 |
| Nõmme United clean sheet | 11% | – | – |
| Kalju Nomme clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 Sept
NÕMME UNITED
KALJU NOMME
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 31 | +63 | 78 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 31 | +16 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 31 | +24 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 31 | −7 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 31 | −4 | 41 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 31 | −18 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 31 | −15 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 31 | −27 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 31 | −44 | 20 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Tammeka
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva