Laagri v Vaprus prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Laagri 2–0 Vaprus LAAGRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Laagri win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.423

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.456

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Laagri win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Laagri was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–22–31
1′KICK-OFF Laagri v Vaprus
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Laagri
30′We published Laagri at 47%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Laagri 1–0 Vaprus
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Laagri win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
31′K. Eerme scores for Laagri on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
45′SECOND HALF Laagri 1–0 Vaprus
48′K. Eerme scores for Laagri on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–7
48′HALF-TIME Laagri 1–0 Vaprus
51′We published Laagri at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Laagri
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Vaprus
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Laagri win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Laagri · On: M. Kesa · Off: H. Palutaja
66′We published Laagri at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
71′We published Laagri at 47%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Laagri 2–0 Vaprus
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Laagri win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
72′Laagri score on 72′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Vaprus
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Laagri
74′71′: M. Kelement on the scoresheet for Laagri, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Vaprus
78′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Laagri · On: K. Laur · Off: A. Kaevats
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vaprus · On: K. Kauber · Off: S. Kapper Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Vaprus
83′We published Laagri at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Laagri · On: A. Kose · Off: A. Binate
92′Full time, 2–0. We called Laagri at 47% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Laagri 2–0 Vaprus
FTLaagri 2–0 Vaprus · Laagri win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laagri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laagri 47%, draw 22%, Vaprus 31%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Laagri v VaprusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Laagri win47%

Draw22%

Vaprus win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueLaagri kunstmurustaadion

RefereeA. Porila

Line-ups

Laagri

Vaprus

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laagri

Vaprus

5Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · Meistriliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Laagri	31	−4	41
7	Vaprus	31	−18	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Laagri

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Vainula

3 A. Kaevats

88 M. Seck

20 A. Vaher

23 Rudenko Daniil

66 K. Roomussaar

17 M. Kelement

6 H. Palutaja

7 R. Reimaa

9 K. Eerme

19 A. Binate

Coach · Lauri Nuuma

Substitutes

4 · A. Jarve

10 · Y. E. Assale

11 · A. Kose

15 · S. Liit

16 · K. Kriis

21 · S. Soo

22 · M. Kesa

24 · K. Laur

41 · E. Kajari

53 · J. Ndakala

79 · R. Meesit

Vaprus

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Nomm

90 J. Sild

28 M. Lipp

66 U. Nomm

5 S. Aer

17 S. Kapper

24 M. Villota

20 H. Valja

10 S. Viidas

8 T. Pajo

42 M. Limberg

Coach · Igor Prins

Substitutes

1 · H. Vainu

4 · M. Villota

7 · V. Vallik

9 · J. Poder

11 · K. Kauber

15 · K. Aloe

19 · A. Korre

64 · J. Allas

74 · K. Kutsar

81 · E. Dolgov

Our number · laagri winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Laagri a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Laagri v Vaprus~~1.71 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 36~~6 v 7

~~The market · Laagri win~~45% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Laagri win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laagri win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Vaprus win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Laagri or draw	69%	70%	−1
Laagri clean sheet	27%	–	–
Vaprus clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.2 7.4 4.3 1 9.2 9.9 7.1 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 4.0 5.2 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laagri down, Vaprus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,040 Meistriliiga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laagri at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vaprus away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Laagri, 1.33 for Vaprus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VAP 3–2 LAA · LAA 1–2 VAP · VAP 0–2 LAA · LAA 1–2 VAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 6 Sept

LAAGRI

LLWDWW0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

VAPRUS

WLLLDD3–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	31	+63	78
2	Flora Tallinn	31	+16	55
3	Paide	31	+12	54
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	31	−7	47
6	Laagri	31	−4	41
7	Vaprus	31	−18	36
8	Kuressaare	31	−15	35
9	Nõmme United	32	−24	31
10	Trans Narva	31	−44	20