Laagri v Nõmme United prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02

Laagri 2–0 Nõmme United LAAGRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Laagri win~~58%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.270

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Laagri win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Laagri v Nõmme United
2′Much as we predicted: Laagri was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–20–23
5′5′ and it is 1–0: Laagri have scored. 1–0 · 77–13–9
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Laagri 1–0 Nõmme United
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 77% now
8′We published Laagri at 58%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–15–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 78% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Nõmme United
45′HALF-TIME Laagri 1–0 Nõmme United
46′SECOND HALF Laagri 1–0 Nõmme United
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nõmme United · On: E. Ounapuu · Off: T. Evans
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Laagri 2–0 Nõmme United
56′Laagri find the net on 55′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
57′We published Laagri at 58%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Laagri
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Laagri 3–0 Nõmme United
62′A goal for Laagri on 61′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 100% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nõmme United · On: A. Torres · Off: K. Oostenbrink
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nõmme United · On: A. Torres · Off: K. Oostenbrink
75′We published Laagri at 58%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–2
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Laagri 2–1 Nõmme United · K. Eerme
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 86% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' Laagri 2–1 Nõmme United
76′A goal for Nõmme United on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Laagri win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nõmme United · On: N. Vassiljev · Off: A. Frolov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Laagri · On: S. Suppi · Off: A. Kaevats
83′We published Laagri at 58%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Nõmme United
FTFULL TIME Laagri 2–0 Nõmme United
FTLaagri 2–0 Nõmme United · Laagri win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

Laagri win58%

Draw19%

Nõmme United win24%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:00

VenueLaagri kunstmurustaadion

Line-ups

Laagri

Nõmme United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Laagri

Nõmme United

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Laagri	30	−6	38
9	Nõmme United	30	−25	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Laagri

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Vainula

7 R. Reimaa

6 H. Palutaja

3 A. Kaevats

20 A. Vaher

21 S. Soo

17 M. Kelement

23 Rudenko Daniil

19 A. Binate

9 K. Eerme

24 K. Laur

Coach · Lauri Nuuma

Substitutes

11 · A. Kose

15 · S. Liit

16 · K. Kriis

18 · I. Bah

22 · M. Kesa

41 · E. Kajari

53 · J. Ndakala

66 · K. Roomussaar

79 · R. Meesit

88 · M. Seck

95 · S. Suppi

Nõmme United

Formation not confirmed

71 G. Purg

55 R. Chanda

50 S. Geiger

6 M. Palts

23 K. Laanelaid

10 A. Frolov

26 K. Oostenbrink

45 H. Jarvelaid

51 Z. Beglarishvili

19 I. Krasnov

15 T. Evans

Coach · Eric Wynalda

Substitutes

1 · G. Lagus

4 · A. Alteberg

7 · A. Torres

9 · E. Ounapuu

12 · M. Marmei

14 · N. Vassiljev

20 · K. Matas

27 · M. Miil

91 · O. Kais

Our number · laagri winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

58% The market46%

Us58%

~~Market~~46%

We make Laagri a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · laagri win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laagri win	58%	46%	+11
Draw	19%	24%	−6
Nõmme United win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	68%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Laagri or draw	76%	71%	+5
Laagri clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nõmme United clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.4 4.6 2.7 1 7.2 7.8 5.6 2.5 2 7.0 9.1 6.1 2.7 3 5.2 6.7 4.4 4 2.9 3.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laagri down, Nõmme United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,034 Meistriliiga matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laagri at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nõmme United away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Laagri, 1.34 for Nõmme United. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOM 1–2 LAA · LAA 1–3 NOM · NOM 1–2 LAA

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

LAAGRI

WLLWDW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

NÕMME UNITED

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	+61	75
2	Flora Tallinn	30	+18	55
3	Paide	30	+11	51
4	Kalju Nomme	30	+24	50
5	Tammeka	30	−6	47
6	Laagri	30	−6	38
7	Vaprus	30	−18	35
8	Kuressaare	30	−16	32
9	Nõmme United	30	−25	28
10	Trans Narva	30	−43	20