Laagri v Flora Tallinn prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 18:31

Laagri 3–1 Flora Tallinn FLORA TALLINN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flora Tallinn win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flora Tallinn win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Laagri v Flora Tallinn
2′Little has changed for our model: Flora Tallinn 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
3′A goal for Laagri on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 50–23–27
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Laagri 1–0 Flora Tallinn
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Flora Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 27% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Laagri win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Flora Tallinn win 50%)
4′We said Flora Tallinn at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 50–23–27
7′Laagri score on 7′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 74–15–11
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Laagri 2–0 Flora Tallinn
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Flora Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
8′We said Flora Tallinn at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 2–0 · 74–15–11
17′We said Flora Tallinn at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 77–14–9
19′Laagri find the net on 19′. 3–0. 3–0 · 91–6–3
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Laagri 3–0 Flora Tallinn
20′Laagri ahead on 18′ through K. Laur. 3–0. 3–0 · 91–6–3
20′We said Flora Tallinn at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 3–0 · 91–6–3
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Flora Tallinn
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Flora Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
45′HALF-TIME Laagri 3–0 Flora Tallinn
46′SECOND HALF Laagri 3–0 Flora Tallinn
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Flora Tallinn · On: S. Zenjov · Off: D. Kuraksin
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Laagri · On: Y. E. Assale · Off: K. Kriis
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Laagri · On: K. Roomussaar · Off: K. Eerme
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Laagri · On: A. Jarve · Off: H. Palutaja
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Flora Tallinn · On: M. Kukkonen · Off: S. Alamaa
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Flora Tallinn · On: D. Zotov · Off: T. Varjund
76′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′A goal for Flora Tallinn on 78′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Laagri 3–1 Flora Tallinn
79′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Flora Tallinn
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Flora Tallinn · On: T. Usta · Off: R. Valdmets
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Flora Tallinn · On: M. Kalimullin · Off: E. Sorga
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Laagri · On: J. Ndakala · Off: A. Binate
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Laagri · On: E. Kajari · Off: S. Soo
FTFULL TIME Laagri 3–1 Flora Tallinn
FTLaagri 3–1 Flora Tallinn · Flora Tallinn win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flora Tallinn are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laagri 28%, draw 21%, Flora Tallinn 51%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Laagri v Flora TallinnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

Laagri win28%

Draw21%

Flora Tallinn win51%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueLaagri kunstmurustaadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laagri

Flora Tallinn

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Meistriliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Flora Tallinn	32	+18	58
6	Laagri	32	−2	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flora tallinn winFirst published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Flora Tallinn a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Laagri v Flora Tallinn~~1.28 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 58~~6 v 2

~~The market · Flora Tallinn win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flora Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laagri win	28%	28%	0
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Flora Tallinn win	51%	49%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	64%	−5
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Laagri or draw	49%	51%	−2
Laagri clean sheet	17%	–	–
Flora Tallinn clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 9.1 7.4 4.5 2.1 1 6.7 9.6 9.3 5.6 2.6 2 3.8 6.6 5.9 3.6 3 2.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laagri down, Flora Tallinn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,044 Meistriliiga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laagri at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Flora Tallinn away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Laagri, 1.81 for Flora Tallinn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLO 1–0 LAA · FLO 5–0 LAA · LAA 2–0 FLO · LAA 1–2 FLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 8 Sept

LAAGRI

LWDWWW2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

FLORA TALLINN

DWWLLW2–2 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	+65	81
2	Flora Tallinn	32	+18	58
3	Paide	32	+13	57
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	32	−9	47
6	Laagri	32	−2	44
7	Vaprus	32	−20	36
8	Kuressaare	32	−17	35
9	Nõmme United	32	−24	31
10	Trans Narva	32	−45	20